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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m not even saying this off me liking warmth but most of the time the ridge wins in these sorts of patterns, cant say the same for CAD tho
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All I was saying was we are more likely to get a cut off to our west/SE ridge/vortex to the north versus the elongated trough on the eps. The eps smoothing this would likely lean the pattern too far right/progressive
 
SD said:
All I was saying was we are more likely to get a cut off to our west/SE ridge/vortex to the north versus the elongated trough on the eps. The eps smoothing this would likely lean the pattern too far right/progressive
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Hope that’s exactly what happens , I want everyone Atlanta westwards to freeze their balls off while we bake . It’s what could have happened February had that stinking CAD not dumped on us! Then again it was the vortex causing CAD that slowed down the cold or something and prevented it from dumping in if I’m not mistaken .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m not even saying this off me liking warmth but most of the time the ridge wins in these sorts of patterns, cant say the same for CAD tho
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Just out of curiosity, it looks like the MJO is heading towards phases 2-3 in the next 10 days....would that put the hold on any torch. I’m not sure what phases 2-3 mean for the 2nd half of March, but I seem to remember Webb showing some analogs the other day and they showed solidly below average.
 
Chazwin said:
Just out of curiosity, it looks like the MJO is heading towards phases 2-3 in the next 10 days....would that put the hold on any torch. I’m not sure what phases 2-3 mean for the 2nd half of March, but I seem to remember Webb showing some analogs the other day and they showed solidly below average.
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Yeah it’ll try, sometimes the SER can resist but it’ll be interesting to see what happens, I’m honestly concerned about severe wx as this is one of those patterns where we could easily trend to it on models around D8-10
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM shows some minor FGEN/WAA which is probably why it shows this, likely overdone since low levels are bone dry on the snow part tho View attachment 77953View attachment 77954
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FFC said they think its gonna be very limited to no precip at all because of how dry the boundary layer is. Good chance NAM is on crack. I will say though that if a band of mod-heavy precip does develop, good chance it can be snow looking at wetbulb profiles. This airmass is REALLY dry to the point of having fire hazard warnings earlier today.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
FFC said they think its gonna be very limited to no precip at all because of how dry the boundary layer is. Good chance NAM is on crack. I will say though that if a band of mod-heavy precip does develop, good chance it can be snow looking at wetbulb profiles. This airmass is REALLY dry to the point of having fire hazard warnings earlier today.
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Yeah wouldn’t shock me if there’s some flurries/sleet with that stuff
 
This is the type of thing and I mean exact thing I worry about in this pattern C0BF1180-3F96-4502-A0C3-81C9956760BB.png40EF8E8C-FC6A-4F5A-8E95-C20323760E94.png
 
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