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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Realistically, I think places down near the southeastern beaches like Morehead City & Cape Hatteras still have a shot to get some snow this weekend from this low that'll be well offshore. Outside of that, maybe we central NC can pray for a stray rain/snow shower underneath the vort max that'll rotate thru, but given how dry the boundary looks, the chances of that are virtually zero & that's pretty much it imo.
 
When the CFSv2 & EPS MJO tropical CHI200 forecasts are initializing a "strong" MJO wave that's not starting over the Maritime Continent & they both generally agree w/ one another, these 2-3 week MJO forecasts usually end up verifying.

The real question going forward is gonna be how much resistance (if any) does this upcoming Indian Ocean MJO wave put up against E US warm-ups late this month? Certainly will be interesting to watch.

I think we can say at this juncture that we are not likely (yet) to stay way above normal beyond next week given this forcing from the tropics. And who knows, it might be enough to keep the door open for one more fluke wintry chance for climo favored areas like the upper south & Apps.

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