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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Looks like the shaft zone setting up from Columbus to Huntsville per latest runs. Clay county area may be bullseye again. Lawd!
 
The differences between the NAM & RGEM at 48 hours are pretty stark to say the least. If NWP models continue to trend more amplified w/ our wave, it's going to slow down, at least a little bit, which would delay the arrival of precipitation into central NC that also means boundary layer temps are going to warm across central NC because the arrival of precipitation in faster/flatter models like the ECMWF/GFS/NAM is at the coolest time of the day atm... It may not warm as much as the DWD-ICON or RGEM are showing but nonetheless it seems important for those southeast of the Triad. In the end it may result in even more snow w/ an amplified wave but mixing near the onset is favored even more so in the amplified/slower solutions of the DWD-ICON & RGEM which most models have been inching towards today.
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MSnowAtl said:
I think the NWS needs to push the WWA further south!
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Agree look at the disparaging of these two maps...

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For Mobile/ pensacola
249 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO
10 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT, Precipitation initially in the form of a wintry mix of
light rain, sleet, and snow will gradually turn into light snow
across the region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
Snow accumulations are generally expected to be less than one
half inch, though isolated totals over one inch cannot be ruled
out. Elevated northerly winds will bring dangerous wind chills
in the single digits late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

* WHERE, Across all of southeast Mississippi, and much of
southwest and south central Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle away from the immediate coast.
 
BPATL said:
Agree look at the disparaging of these two maps...

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I can't wait until FFC decided to issue the advisories at the last minute tomorrow. Looks like MS has the same issue of not issuing further south. Just wait until SC gets their advisories. Could make FFC look stupid.
 
I don't like his forecast for my area.. Or anybody elses for that matter. What do ya'll think?
 

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Webb... 1300, guys....fellas, you're both extremely intelligent and offer so much knowledge to this place and I'm good with disagreement, honestly if you weed through the personal stuff there is some great information in there but if you would please not make it personal, please limit it to a couple of post, agree to disagree and move on, well we'd all appreciate it. Y'all make a moderators job one helluva a tough gig
 
Snowflowxxl said:
FFC wants this to turn into snowmagedon again!
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The best way to handle this in that area because of the flash freeze threat, even if it's lower than last time is WWAs that specifically mention that "While this will not be an event with high totals, what will fall is going to cause icing on the roads, and this needs to be specifically looked for".

If there is 1-3" of snow with little warning, heck even a dusting, there is going to be major issues.
 
State of Emergency declarations are used to help have available resources.
Any television met who thinks he knows anything to do with it, is a moron.

Idiot said a dusting of snow and areas saw a foot, last time, anyways.
 
Shawn said:
State of Emergency declarations are used to help have available resources.
Any television met who thinks he knows anything to do with it, is a moron.

Idiot said a dusting of snow and areas saw a foot, last time, anyways.
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And even though this won't be like the early December big snow, it can become similar to 1/28/14 with that light snow becoming ice on the roads, especially in North AL/GA.
 
SimeonNC said:
Mods feel free to remove/move this if it ends up being too banter-ish.

Honestly, I'm beginning to feel like that some of the TV mets down here might be a bit too conservative. I'm not trying to say that I know better than them or that I don't understand why they're so conservative. But sometimes it can be a bit much, like the whole predicted dusting ending up becoming a foot people here keep pointing out.
I know TV mets probably don't want to cause a panic, but it's better to have people prepared for the worst case scenario and have nothing happen than to have situations like the 2014 event happen.
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Especially in a Metro of 7 million, some people were in their cars for 24 hours, totally embarrassing.
 
Jan ‘14 can gtfo. The lunchtime start to that event was a huge factor in its creation. Timing looks different this go around that would limit the chaos of everyone hitting the roads at the same time.

Seems like a decent analog though. Light event occurring with temps in the mid to upper 20s. The discussion has been had before and the consensus I got was roads begin to freeze around. 27-28 air temp in the daytime. Need those few degrees to fight off the dark surface absorbing the incoming heat, cars running over it ect....
 
BPATL said:
Especially in a Metro of 7 million, some people were in their cars for 24 hours, totally embarrassing.
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Another thing is the phone weather apps show nothing, and basically even on Dec 8th. I know this belongs in Banter, but thought it was relevant to my thread. Unfortunately for the lay people, lol, that is what they believe and see and it bites them in the a@@
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Here is latest hrrr run. It has the band dying as it crosses through NW Alabama...have to watch to see if that trend continues as we move forward.

View attachment 3015
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A lot of the models have had that and then have it kind of reform or intensify shortly after. The NAM has been showing that for the past 2 days
 
Parker said:
A lot of the models have had that and then have it kind of reform or intensify shortly after. The NAM has been showing that for the past 2 days
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Yea that's true the reform would be shortly after that hour. Plus it's the long range of the hrrr to.
 
LithiaWx said:
Jan ‘14 can gtfo. The lunchtime start to that event was a huge factor in its creation. Timing looks different this go around that would limit the chaos of everyone hitting the roads at the same time.

Seems like a decent analog though. Light event occurring with temps in the mid to upper 20s. The discussion has been had before and the consensus I got was roads begin to freeze around. 27-28 air temp in the daytime. Need those few degrees to fight off the dark surface absorbing the incoming heat, cars running over it ect....
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Yes the two factors that will help in Metro ATL
1) Time of day as you said, we will not have the rush of vehicles
2) GDOT now applies brine which should help with the onset "stick" issue
 
Keep an eye out for a trend towards an upstate 850, especially one that slowly deepens as it exits the coast in NC. RGEM is on the extreme end but even the Euro hints at some 850mb close off potential. You would want to be NE of the 850 center by a margin for enhanced lift.
 
WeatherNC said:
Keep an eye out for a trend towards an upstate 850, especially one that slowly deepens as it exits the coast in NC. RGEM is on the extreme end but even the Euro hints at some 850mb close off potential. You would want to be NE of the 850 center by a margin for enhanced lift.
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Are you saying that would favor Roanoke Rapids to Norfolk VA?
 
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