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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Storm5 said:
Homerun solution? For areas east of the Carolinas an inch or so is a homerun in this situation . And we've seen a few runs showing what 3-5 I'm NC. Not sure we can ask for more this late in the game
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Its been a good day for the Triad region in NC. Espeacilly 12z Euro and 18z nam.

Think folks forget looking at h5 you need to be on the north side of the energy , espeacilly if it's closed off. This isn't 100% clipper I know, but it's a ns vort and to me the same principals should apply. Yes we need trough to dig and go neutral so vort can amp up. But just like a ull or clipper you don't want it right overhead rather just to your south.
 
deltadog03 said:
I'll be honest, I'm on the fence with this one. It bothers me that we haven't had like any "honerun" solutions either. I know we are taking baby steps but its been bugging me about this not going to happen. Too many factors against it. I think it's like why are we not developing better qpf with fiarly good dynamics. I guess we shall see
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It may not matter if there's a dual jet look if the GFS is right on the dewpoints...it's pretty bad at 66 outside of the Carolinas.

But then again if there's a dual jet look and a bit of a gulf tap, why are the dewpoints dry?
 
If us here in upstate sees an inch out of this we will be doing good. Clipper type events just does not fair well here. I know this is not a 100% clipper but it's close.

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Nashville going 1-2 for NW corner of Ala. My point forecast is about 3/4 of an inch with an inch over at Florence
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SCweather said:
Not sure if we can just toss it. If we did that, we’d be a bunch of hypocrites for honking it’s horn earlier. Got to take all of them in consideration. Except the GFS, the GFS sucks.
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You didn't hear? A special tossing/mulligan rule has been established for southernwx members for the 18Z run of any model. This is one of the perks of being a member. There even is a t-shirt saying "it's the 18Z GFS...we toss". That tshirt is meant to be general for any 18Z model as that's happy hour and any one 18Z model run could be drunk.

In all seriousness, maybe there really could be something to the 18Z runs being slightly worse for wintry weather vs other runs due to 18Z being near the warmest time of day but that may be a stretch. I do still vividly recall that the 18Z GEFS runs were on almost every run this past autumn the most active GEFS tropically speaking in the western Atlantic basin. I read that that could have something to do with 18Z being the warmest time of day in the western basin. I don't necessarily buy that but it is an interesting hypothesis, regardless.
 
From BMX

Have made some tweaks in the forecast grids for Tuesday into
Wednesday, but for the most part these are refinements. Looking
at the latest guidance there is still no doubt that any precip
that falls on Tuesday into Wednesday should be of the snow
variety. Models continue to struggle translating the moisture post
front into snow amounts. Some of this has to do with the strength
and tilt of the upper trough to draw moisture into the system and
some with handling the lower temperatures and their snow ratios.
With the plummeting of temperatures behind this arctic front,
readings will very quickly go below freezing and into the 20s
behind it. Although we do not have high snow amounts in the
forecast grids overall (even in the northwest counties below an
inch at this time) my concern is that any precip that melts before
temperatures go below freezing will quickly refreeze as temps
drops, which could definitely cause possibly big travel impacts
for mainly the northwest half of Central Alabama. Models continue
to show moisture decreasing as we head into Tuesday night as the
post frontal precip moves into the southeast half of Central
Alabama with only flurries now mentioned during the daytime
morning hours in the far southeast now as the upper system exits.
However, with that said, will be keeping a close eye on the
southeast as well. Will be refining more as we head into Monday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=BMX
 
Jackson is issuing a winter weather advisor for part of it's its coverage area later tonight or early early am

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GaWx said:
You didn't hear? A special tossing/mulligan rule has been established for southernwx members for the 18Z run of any model. This is one of the perks of being a member. There even is a t-shirt saying "it's the 18Z GFS...we toss". That tshirt is meant to be general for any 18Z model as that's happy hour and any one 18Z model run could be drunk.

In all seriousness, maybe there really could be something to the 18Z runs being slightly worse for wintry weather vs other runs due to 18Z being near the warmest time of day but that may be a stretch. I do still vividly recall that the 18Z GEFS runs were on almost every run this past autumn the most active GEFS tropically speaking in the western Atlantic basin. I read that that could have something to do with 18Z being the warmest time of day in the western basin. I don't necessarily buy that but it is an interesting hypothesis, regardless.
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In the past it was the 18Z Goofy that had the most preposterous storms in la la land :) Maybe it's compensating for having to deal with the warm part of the nearest future, lol. It's kind of fun watching people trying to tweak something out of a clipper. It's a clipper's nature, be it straight up, or hybrid, to dry out as it moves into your yard. T
 
Is there ground truth in that snow in MS right now? This caught me off guard. And moving SE toward my town soon.
 
accu35 said:
Is there ground truth in that snow in MS right now? This caught me off guard. And moving SE toward my town soon.
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Check out your dewpoint vs temp; should give a good idea.
 
accu35 said:
Is there ground truth in that snow in MS right now? This caught me off guard. And moving SE toward my town soon.
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I'll also add another suggestion, is your dewpoint 10-15 degrees away from the temp? If so, that's workable and you could see snow.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'll also add another suggestion, is your dewpoint 10-15 degrees away from the temp? If so, that's workable and you could see snow.
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The other night it flurried unexpected. Maybe this current one will do the same lol.
 
accu35 said:
The other night it flurried unexpected. Maybe this current one will do the same lol.
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As long as your dew isn't ridiculously low, and there is adequate moisture in the snow growth region; you may be good to go.
 
Lol, not sure if i want to ruin a new thread, lol. If it snows than im good lol.someone else could if its worth it
 
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