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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Avalanche said:
Yeah, if there is a chance of a storm system, they usually play it safe until go time, but with this just being flurries I think they feel more comfortable talking about it this far out.
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Flurries? You must not have seen the trends most of the day. Euro and NAM had at least 3 to 4 for Raleigh most of the day.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I have to say it is very frustrating when we are three days out and the models trend better and better and then take a step back in the same day. Not sure how mets would have any faith in them if they go back and forth 72 hours out.
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Which one is taking a step back? I’m just not sure. I haven’t seen one that has today. Also, Brick, don’t take every model run as gospel. Still have 24-48 hours to get all the details settled.
 
Nam0806 said:
Which one is taking a step back? I’m just not sure. I haven’t seen one that has today. Also, Brick, don’t take every model run as gospel. Still have 24-48 hours to get all the details settled.
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The ICON basically threw a goose egg at half the forum on its last run. Somehow a chunk of NC survived unscathed.
 
Nam0806 said:
Which one is taking a step back? I’m just not sure. I haven’t seen one that has today. Also, Brick, don’t take every model run as gospel. Still have 24-48 hours to get all the details settled.
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Agreed, at this point. We could still wind up bone dry, so the chance of flurries is not yet highly determined. Hopefully Monday evening there will be a more set in stone picture.
 
Houston Texas going for its SECOND winter event of the season
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Storm5 said:
An inch or less is the safe bet at the moment . We will have to see how trends go over the next 24 hours . It's possible you could see a little more up that way. Not a big snow with this system but it could have big impacts

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It’s kinda funny how Huntsville doesn’t even issue a special weather statement. They are always the last ones to do something. It’s like they watch what everyone else does first.
 
Avalanche said:
Agreed, at this point. We could still wind up bone dry, so the chance of flurries is not yet highly determined. Hopefully Monday evening there will be a more set in stone picture.
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If you think all we are getting are flurries because that is what the local mets say then I don't know why you come here. That is not what the Euro and NAM have shown most of the time in the last 24 hours.
 
Brick Tamland said:
If you think all we are getting are flurries because that is what the local mets say then I don't know why you come here. That is not what the Euro and NAM have shown most of the time in the last 24 hours.
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I will buy what the NAM is selling beginning tomorrow night. But not yet. Been there, done that.
 
Avalanche said:
I will buy what the NAM is selling beginning tomorrow night. But not yet. Been there, done that.
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NAM and Euro. Not saying what they are showing will happen or change, but if you never think they are right and just go with what the local mets say more than 24 hours out, it is kind of pointless to follow the models and discussion here.
 
It's time to start looking at the RGEM also. This storm is right at the end of its forecasting window for TN, AL, and MS at this point. It's on the drier side of modeling at the moment. Hopefully it starts to trend wetter as it gets closer to its wheelhouse range.
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Brick Tamland said:
NAM and Euro
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No doubt the Euro giveth, but lets not forget it can take it away, its done that for quite sometime. The only reason I think that we can squeeze out some flurries is due to the SW flow and a little lift, UNLESS some other parameters change between now and then, and we both know it will (for better or worse). Lets hope for better!!
 
Avalanche said:
No doubt the Euro giveth, but lets not forget it can take it away, its done that for quite sometime. The only reason I think that we can squeeze out some flurries is due to the SW flow and a little lift, UNLESS some other parameters change between now and then, and we both know it will (for better or worse). Lets hope for better!!
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Good way to end the argument right there.... thanks. Seriously just agree to disagree guys or carry the argument over to banter please. I know I'm responding to your post directly but it's directed at you and Brick in a respectful manner... thanks for flying with southernwx.
 
Brick Tamland said:
If you think all we are getting are flurries because that is what the local mets say then I don't know why you come here. That is not what the Euro and NAM have shown most of the time in the last 24 hours.
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Not so sure in either direction yet. I’m in Greensboro, and it looks okay for us to get 1-2 inches maybe. I don’t know how much for Raleigh and your area, but I would not discount any solution just yet.
 
metwannabe said:
Good way to end the argument right there.... thanks. Seriously just agree to disagree guys or carry the argument over to banter please. I know I'm responding to your post directly but it's directed at you and Brick in a respectful manner... thanks for flying with southernwx.
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Sorry, thanks for having me.
 
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