gawxnative
Member
AS an FYI... KHTX (Hilltop/Huntsville) NEXRAD is down until further with Mechanical/transmission issue
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
Stormlover
Member
Stormlover
Member
Hytop
One reason it is dying out. Is because the hrrr only goes out to 18 hours. And so it not that reliable at that hour. I would trust it at 10 and under hours.
The HRRR is good at times but even it is like most other models and best in it's "short range" not "long range", seriously I think it's great within 10 hours, sometimes beyond that it changes can be often and significant. Just something to think about.... wouldn't worry too much about it showing that at hr 18
Just a note, the NAM has nine hours of good returns over central AL on composite radar, yet doesn't print out much QPF or snowfall. I guess it is saying a small dry layer at the surface evaporates it. Keep an eye on that.
StormStalker
Member
Snowing at the NWS office in Memphis.
Stormlover
Member
a youtube radar view to watch it come in
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Is this system essentially upper level in nature vs a coastal low?
BKWRN29
Member
When do the next models come out?
This has got to be the slowest moving system ever. That area of snow in KY hasn't moved in hours.
packfan98
Moderator
We are so close for some to the event starting, that there are short range models that come out every hour. The best of those is probably the hrrr. The SREF plumes will come out around 8:30. The NAM suite runs at 9:00 and the RGEM at 10:00.
NAM should be out about 8 CST, new SREF plumes around 7:15-7:30 CST.
Hrrr refreshes every hour
Then you have the rap
Then you have the rpm
Then you have the nam which starts about 8.
Does anyone think that 1/9-10/1962 MIGHT be an analog for this for ATL and RDU?
http://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Documents/US-Daily-Weather-Maps
Like now, the PNA, NAO, and AO were solidly + while the EPO was pretty neutral. ENSO was then cold neutral, which isn't too far off the current borderline weak/moderate La Nina. Like for this one, there was no Gulf surface low and there was a SW-NE oriented band of overrunning behind a very strong cold front though the surface high of 1/1962 was much stronger at 1060 mb vs the current one of only 1045 mb. Like for this one, surface winds at ATL were NW.
http://library.noaa.gov/Collections/Digital-Documents/US-Daily-Weather-Maps
Like now, the PNA, NAO, and AO were solidly + while the EPO was pretty neutral. ENSO was then cold neutral, which isn't too far off the current borderline weak/moderate La Nina. Like for this one, there was no Gulf surface low and there was a SW-NE oriented band of overrunning behind a very strong cold front though the surface high of 1/1962 was much stronger at 1060 mb vs the current one of only 1045 mb. Like for this one, surface winds at ATL were NW.
Stormlover
Member
NAM will start sooner than that central time
I think the NAM runs around 8:30 PM.
Storm5
Member
HRRR gives Memphis just short of 5 inches
Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Nice
Hopefully it will up the totals in north/central alabama till the east.
Stormlover
Member
From Brad Travis, meteorologist at WAFF TV in Huntsville:
So.....What happens if it doesn't snow Tuesday. Asking for a friend.
So.....What happens if it doesn't snow Tuesday. Asking for a friend.
Xtreme Weather
Member
And add the Canadian!
Guest please take a min and sign up. It easy and free. Come join the conversation!!
Memphis really cashing out in the past week! Good for them they have had a small snow drought themselves.
Brad’s goofy as crap. I’m sure that was tongue and cheek.From Brad Travis, meteorologist at WAFF TV in Huntsville:
So.....What happens if it doesn't snow Tuesday. Asking for a friend.
Storm5
Member
It wasn’t supposed to start this early from them right ??
Nice uvvs from the gfs
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Xtreme Weather
Member
JLL1973
Member
Starting to doubt those high snow ratios here. Its still 39 outside
I was gonna ask the same thing.
Stormlover
Member
has nothing to do with it, it's behind the arctic front you'll get those ratios
Stormlover
Member
what part are you referring to?
Why do CURRENT wx maps have a 1051 high over the N Plains when in reality it is only 1045? Also, all major models have been initializing off of a 1055-6 high as of 18Z when in fact it was then only 1047. Is this a concern as far as the accuracy of the models and, therefore, what would that portend for this wintry event? Wetter? Warmer? Anything?
aca911
Member
It's important to see how this performs to our west, because if it overperforms to the west, then I fell that could very well transpire to the east. Back in December when college station and places out in Texas racked in, it was a sign of what was to come later on.
Storm5
Member
Stormlover
Member
here's a view you can use
Definitely looks like a sw flow. With the precip moving southwest to northeast.
A couple days ago I would have painted 3"+ potential from GSO to RIC, now it looks like Wake Forest to Emporia. There should be a band from CLT to GSO that may over-perform but at this point, Roanoke Rapids is in a very good spot if the upper levels continue to trend. We usually see systems trend away from us inside day 5, I am a big believer though in the 48-120hr dead period where guidance loses events just to bring them back in a slightly more amped version come verification. While this is by no means a rule, it seems to happen with some frequency and without a good explanation.