Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[GeorgiaGirl]

What concerns me is the potential for a period of melting followed by a quick freeze...A situation similar to January 2014. I'm not saying it WILL, but the ingredients may be there. Roads will have a chance to warm tomorrow and into Tuesday before the arctic front pushes through. Depending on how much snow falls and how quickly it falls, we may see a rapid glaze situation.

He absolutely is right. That's the biggest concern there and WWAs will have to be issued that specifically note that.

 

[Parker]

Latest SREF for Birmingham has a mean of .39, but has more members over 3/4 of an inch than any run so far. 8 members over the .39 inch mean. Max member is 2.67.

 

[setxwx]

MRX calling for .6 inches... no advisories yet, I guess they're waiting until after tonight's runs...

 

[Stormlover]

Newest SREF plume down for central Alabama.

Went .25 , .75 to now .39

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yeah, down to .64 for me...4 more runs tomorrow!

 

[SCweather]

Checking plumes, they went up for most areas in the Carolinas.

 

[Storm5]

I expect a less amped NAM run

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[Kylo]

18z run of the JMA had a closed upper low. Unsure how accurate this model is.

 

[RollTide18]

I expect a less amped NAM run

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Same here

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah I think the SREF plumes actually went up slightly eastward. Nitpicking though, especially in my case where there was one that may have really skewed it.

 

[$alt]

Checking plumes, they went up for most areas in the Carolinas.

In this area, the chance dropped 5%, though... closer to 15% chance vs 20% on the last run Which I still agree with, so I won't toss the SREF this time, either.

 

[Snownut]

Upstate SC has a mean of 1" but some has went up. But I just do not see us getting over an inch out of this. I could be wrong and would love to see 2 or 3. But I don't see it happening.

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[$alt]

18z run of the JMA had a closed upper low. Unsure how accurate this model is.

Not a very good model for the United States.

 

[cyclogent]

SREF mean for CHA was 0.6 on 9z, 1.0 on 15z, to 0.8 on the just finished 21z. Fairly consistent. If the 0z RGEM/RDPS is close to that I'll take it. Tired of walking on crunchy brown grass lol.

 

[Tarheelwx]

GSO had been hovering around 1" but is now up to 2".
TW

 

[cyclogent]

MRX calling for .6 inches... no advisories yet, I guess they're waiting until after tonight's runs...

Probably see an advisory go up with tomorrow afternoons package. 3 or 4pm ish. Even if amounts are light this could be quite interesting if onset is the late afternoon commute.

 

[deltadog03]

1 think to watch for also is how much energy comes crashing on shore. EURO had more of it on the 12z run as well....

 

[RollTide18]

SREF mean for MGM stayed the same but other members came down a bit, except one 3 inch member.

 

[PGAWx]

2.0 for RDU.

 

[Metwannabe]

2.0 for RDU.

Welcome to southerwx.... you referencing the SREF mean?

 

[Webberweather53]

Here comes the 0z NAM, our s/w should be at least partially sampled by now in the relatively more dense RAOB network in the contiguous US...