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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

SD said:
I would add watch the upper low near the US Canadian border. Each model that closes off the our upper system is farther north with this system and aren't flattening the ridge nearly as quickly.
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Yep, this is very key to allowing our s/w to cut-off and not surprisingly the GFS/NAM have been trending towards a stronger New England ridge
 
about the SREF: my 1.16 at Meridianville(closest) is only .10 qpf or 11 1/2 to 1. That is likely low, so the other sref amounts may be low too.
 
Stormlover said:
21z sref for Alabama Mean/averages
Muscle Shoals 1.36 inches
Meridianville 1.16 inches
Huntsville .95 of an inch
Ft. Payne .60 of an inch
Auburn .59 of an inch
Cullman .56 of an inch
Montgomery .47 of an inch
Anniston .42 of an inch
Alexander City .42 of an inch
Gadsden .32 of an inch
Dothan .12 of an inch
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Trending the wrong way if you are wanting snow in the 20/59 corridor.
 
My Sref plume here in Athens GA doubled from 15z. Up to. 47in from. 21in and my boom reading is almost at 3 in!

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I dont know if this would have any effect on short range models, but the precipitation seems to be a couple of hours behind schedule from what they were predicting a few hours ago. It seems to be catching up in real time.looking a lot more promising over southern Ark. and Northrn LA. It seems to be moving a little more due east than NE. I feel better about ground truth than the models right now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's a 500 hPa animation for that event using ERA-20C... There are some distinct differences between this upcoming event and January 1962, namely the s/w at the base of the trough was much further west when it entered the US and dug all the way down into Arizona and the entire longwave trough washed out during the course of the event, pretty classic overrunning setup in general, albeit it would be even more classic if the wave was embedded in the southern stream and came into the US thru California and ran into a big, cold vortex over SE Canada & the Great Lakes.

Jan-1962-US-500-hPa-animation.gif


View attachment 3027
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You know I would like that.

That 3 to 4 is looking pretty good now according to the SREF.
 
SD said:
I would add watch the upper low near the US Canadian border. Each model that closes off the our upper system is farther north with this system and aren't flattening the ridge nearly as quickly.
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great work! I Agree and something to watch
 
Webberweather53 said:
21z SREF for RDU after removing the one member w/ 10" lol. Important thing to note here if anything is that most of the members show anything between 1-4" but the mean definitely went up substantially. Again it is the SREF so take it w/ a grain of salt.
View attachment 3028
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Right! The only thing I use the SREF for is to predict what the NAM is going to output on the next run.
 
WeatherNC said:
It is, most of NC sees a 1-3" event on the 21z SREF, ARW is a little more amped as usual. Clicking through the stations the mean is not picking up on the gaps, some will see a dusting while others will see closer to 2-3". That's about the cap at this point, anyone who verifies more will be deemed fortunate.
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I'd be careful here. The SREF uses 10:1 SLRs and shows 0.28" QPF w/ a little less than 3" of snow in the Triad, in reality w/ 12-15:1 ratios, Greensboro would verbatim see 4-5"
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd be careful here. The SREF uses 10:1 SLR and shows 0.28" QPF w/ a little less than 3" of snow in the Triad, in reality w/ 12-15:1 ratios, Greensboro would verbatim see 4-5"
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Granted, but that is a meso amp skew suite with a usual dial back of 25-40% during big EC events. Not saying the same will hold here, only that the mean is broad-brushing totals where they will be more localized.
 
WeatherNC said:
Granted, but that is a meso amp skew suite with a usual dial back of 25-40% dial back during big EC events.
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I wouldn't necessarily apply that here, the potential for an event like the SREF depicts is clearly on the table w/ the way NWP is trending and how the high res models are evolving in general. 3-6" is not that unreasonable back towards the Triad
 
I really don’t see how that line would break up for 2 hours then Reform. I think it will hold together.
 
Anyone have a sounding for BMX tomorrow at 12 pm? Interested to see RH in the 1025-750 mb layer. Low level moisture would help smaller QPF numbers "Play UP"
 
The short term trends in the NAM continue to bode well for an earlier cut-off ULL like the RGEM/DWD-ICON have been showing granted it's beyond me whether the model will actually show that this run
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DarkKnight said:
I really don’t see how that line would break up for 2 hours then Reform. I think it will hold together.
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I hope not because it really messes me up a little, breaks up right on top of me, then reforms once it’s past me. Still get ok amount but could get a lot more if stayed together.
 
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