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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Webberweather53 said:
Here comes the 0z NAM, our s/w should be at least partially sampled by now in the relatively more dense RAOB network in the contiguous US...
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See here's a lesson for you kiddos, if you're going to announce a model is running this is how you do it.....
 
Per SREF for me.. Looking definitely "impactfull" with timing (predawn into morning commute) with air temps near 20.. .. mean was .38 Going to be another "no win" for school admins making the call...
 
The SREF mean for me is .69 on .07 qpf...less than 10 to 1..that's wrong. Might as well as clearly say that would be over an inch.
 
Stormlover said:
The SREF mean for me is .69 on .07 qpf...less than 10 to 1..that's wrong. Might as well as clearly say that would be over an inch.
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I thought the same thing for Bham. Mean QPF is .05 for BHAM, which would easily be close to an inch with higher ratios, so if the SREF plumes are going off of 10:1 ratios then I think its safe to multiply the mean by at least 1.5.
 
Jon said:
Getting rid of the 13” outlier it was 1” :(


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Yep. Even though it's the SREF the spread on the 21z suite seems pretty reasonable in general w/ anything from 0 to about 4". The ceiling for RDU if we play all of our cards right is likely a little higher than this at about 6" but I doubt we get close to that at this juncture. The sweet spot east of the mountains in NC is probably going to be knocking on the door of Winter Storm Warning Criteria for the NWS RAH domain...
 
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Erm, something is either wrong with my data; or there is definitely a major change at h5 vs 18z.
 
The one major change on this run of the NAM thus far is the big vortex over the Lakes is slower... Apparently the ingestion of new RAOB data in and around the contiguous US had a pretty substantial and measurable impact on the NAM forecast inside 24 hours. The ridge over the Rockies all the way up into western Canada is definitely stronger this run as well...
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Webberweather53 said:
The one major change on this run of the NAM thus far is the big vortex over the Lakes is slower... Apparently the ingestion of new RAOB data in and around the contiguous US had a pretty substantial and measurable impact on the NAM forecast inside 24 hours. The ridge over the Rockies all the way up into western Canada is definitely stronger this run as well...
View attachment 2893
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The stronger ridge stands out like a sore thumb.... good sign I would think
 
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