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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

With this current NAM run being a major change from the last few runs, I'd be willing to not take it *too* seriously. It definitely bears watching though. Will continue to monitor.
 
The December storm overperformes the night before as well. We all know how that ended up as well.... just something to think about
 
Snowflowxxl said:
The December storm overperformes the night before as well. We all know how that ended up as well.... just something to think about
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Lol I would love to see 5 inches from this, but until I see the system tomorrow afternoon, we won't know the truth. The reality will be seen then. Until then, all we have is what's happening now and the models. The NAM wasn't a good trend though this run. Let's get a good ICON and RGEM.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's actually impressive to say the least in that area-wide they're going to end up w/ 3-7" in portions of KY & TN...
Here's what last night's 3 km NAM showed. At best 2-3" if you account for ratios... Not even close. Bears watching for those downstream.
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I Agree, im not counting on these LR models, heck short range at this matter lol. Radar watch in full effect. I feel as this will up totals unexpected
 
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North. -THOMAS WOLFE
 
Stormsfury said:
Well, this run of the NAM just purplexed me. Develops a SFC reflection and low basically offshore NC/VA and by hr48, a clear cut SFC low up offshore of New England ... that didn't quite make much sense ...
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Glad to hear that. Maybe a wonky run. It seems so far off from the others lately.
 
Well Memphis upgrade to a winter storm warning.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 737 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 ...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... .A strong upper level disturbance will move through the Mid South tonight as arctic air spills into the region. Snow has developed and will become heavy at times over east central Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, and into much of west Tennessee later tonight. Snow will taper off from northwest to southeast on Tuesday. The combination of very cold temperatures and gusty northwest winds will produce wind chill values to zero or below, mainly along and north of Interstate 40. ARZ036-048-TNZ049-050-052-088-161130- /O.UPG.KMEG.WW.Y.0002.180116T0300Z-180116T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KMEG.WS.W.0002.180116T0137Z-180116T1800Z/ /O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.180116T0600Z-180116T1800Z/ Crittenden-St. Francis-Tipton-Haywood-Madison-Shelby- Including the cities of West Memphis, Forrest City, Covington, Brownsville, Jackson, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, and Millington 737 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow is expected. Snow may mix with sleet at the onset of precipitation but change quickly to all snow. Plan on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with localized higher amounts, are expected. * WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas and West Tennessee. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until noon Tuesday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, midnight tonight through noon on Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times and hazardous travel conditions. The cold wind chills will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to
 
High res guidance busted horribly even last night w/ the snow that's currently falling over southwestern KY & portions of TN. NWS currently expecting 3-7" and even if you account for higher SLRs, they're going to experience nearly double what was forecast by any high res model. Epic fail.

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Also here is Memphis updated forecast from the weather service.

Tonight
Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Glad to hear that. Maybe a wonky run. It seems so far off from the others lately.
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It wasn't bad for us
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Stormsfury said:
Well, this run of the NAM just purplexed me. Develops a SFC reflection and low basically offshore NC/VA and by hr48, a clear cut SFC low up offshore of New England ... that didn't quite make much sense ...
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Ya don't get. Mega jet streak and nada really. Hmm ok
 
We really shouldn't be too shocked if this happens, models have been drying out as we get closer in most events this year east of the mountains
 
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