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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Caution peeps now not to freak out over what is showing at the surface.... I'm telling you we have seen this song and dance more than once this Winter. I don't know why models are struggling with precip when we have jet streaks like that but they are.... give me that look we will be fine
 
Stormlover said:
26814732_981562648664703_8129263726707654159_n.png
through midnight tues night
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Its snowing in the 20s even down to Montgomery
 
I don't know that we can call all of the runs bogus, but if everything is showing what we are seeing but with little moisture...uh yeah.
 
The Nam is now trending toward the GFS the last two runs. Went from neutral tilt cutoff ULL to a flat strung out mess...good for small snows in northern gulf states to make those folks happy, but would essentially shaft Central NC. Hopefully not a trend here. We need that cutoff....


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GeorgiaGirl said:
I don't know that we can call all of the runs bogus, but if everything is showing what we are seeing but with little moisture...uh yeah.
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uh, no, not needing much moisture at all for this. most all of northern half of ala getting .05 qpf, withe some above .10 and a small area above .15
 
It doesn't cutoff either so that may be part of the issue... this may be something to watch moving forward tonight since it has been sampled better now, not sure
 
metwannabe said:
Caution peeps now not to freak out over what is showing at the surface.... I'm telling you we have seen this song and dance more than once this Winter. I don't know why models are struggling with precip when we have jet streaks like that but they are.... give me that look we will be fine
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For real. That look argues for a nice precip shield across GA/SC/NC.


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Parker said:
This system is gonna have some surprises with it. With temps as cold as they are, if models are off by even just a little with the QPF, then this will be 2014 all over again in Alabama. Roads will be gridlocked.
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Except this time people in Birmingham know its coming so the roads will be treated ahead of time.
 
Stormlover said:
uh, no, not needing much moisture at all for this
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You're most likely good in AL, you're going to get a nice little event.

We're just all puzzled about what we're seeing eastward with the looks that we're seeing on the other maps. I'm not centered on where I am, or anywhere else.
 
C
GeorgiaGirl said:
You're most likely good in AL, you're going to get a nice little event.

We're just all puzzled about what we're seeing eastward with the looks that we're seeing on the other maps. I'm not centered on where I am, or anywhere else.
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I would say most of Alabama north of Birmingham is bet for safe 1-3 inches.
 
Jon said:
The Nam is now trending toward the GFS the last two runs. Went from neutral tilt cutoff ULL to a flat strung out mess...good for small snows in northern gulf states to make those folks happy, but would essentially shaft Central NC. Hopefully not a trend here. We need that cutoff....


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The earlier WPC discussion threw out the nam and Euro for being too amped and went with the middle of the road UKMET/Canadian blend.
 
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With what I have been told on here, why this doesn't have more precip produced from it, I really don't know...
 

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Jon said:
The Nam is now trending toward the GFS the last two runs. Went from neutral tilt cutoff ULL to a flat strung out mess...good for small snows in northern gulf states to make those folks happy, but would essentially shaft Central NC. Hopefully not a trend here. We need that cutoff....


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Click to expand...

Not sure why you're saying that because it's pretty clear to me the NAM is trending away from the GFS w/ a slower & deeper s/w at the base of this longwave over the MS valley & is consolidating the vort max over the past few runs...
 
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