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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

We've been trending favorably for more QPF in the SE US until hour 60 in most NWP models w/ this system, thereafter the entire longwave has looked weaker...
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Webberweather53 said:
Tell that to March 1927, March 1960, January 2000, January 2003, & March 2010. Just because a storm crosses the Appalachians doesn't automatically mean its going to be completely crippled when it comes out on the other side. These are just a few examples of success stories in NC...
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I can also find analogs where NW flow events produced snowfall in the upstate but that doesn't make it the status quo. Elevation will kill a system and unless you have some way to enhance it after it gets ripped apart at the top of grandfather mountain it's not going to produce for folks on the other side. ENC has a redeveloping coastal so I'm not so much talking about them but for the rest of us on the Leeside there is nothing special here to breathe life back into this thing
 
rgem
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can also find analogs where NW flow events produced snowfall in the upstate but that doesn't make it the status quo. Elevation will kill a system and unless you have some way to enhance it after it gets ripped apart at the top of grandfather mountain it's not going to produce for folks on the other side. ENC has a redeveloping coastal so I'm not so much talking about them but for the rest of us on the Leeside there is nothing special here to breathe life back into this thing
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This isn't true at all, nor is this a status quo event by any means. Usually system that crosses the mountains into NC and dies are those embedded within northwesterly flow aloft where there's no additional source of moisture to tap into to allow the entire wave to reintensify and re-moisten the low-mid levels (granted vorticity stretching helps in those cases). Here the flow is out of the southwest for at least 36 hours before the trough reaches the Carolinas...
 
Webberweather53 said:
This isn't true at all, nor is this a status quo event by any means. Usually system that crosses the mountains into NC and dies are those embedded within northwesterly flow aloft where there's no additional source of moisture to tap into to allow the entire wave to reintensify (granted vorticity stretching helps in those cases). Here the flow is out of the southwest for at least 36 hours before the trough reaches the Carolinas...
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If this thing is solely dependent on the flow out of the southwest then why isn't it translating to the theoretical surface?
 
RollTide18 said:
Sure the depiction of the moisture going poof could be right but I'm trying to the remember the last time a precip band extending 300-400 miles goes poof within a three hour span.
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The main support is moving to the NE. It's gonna die no doubt . Just a matter of when

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If this thing is solely dependent on the flow out of the southwest then why isn't it translating to the theoretical surface?
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As 1300m mentioned earlier, the weaker ULL later in the run closer to truncation according to the QG omega equation (where the vertical differential in vorticity advection and temperature (thickness) advection dictate upward motion) the more strung out trough later in the run near truncation on the NAM doesn't favor as much QPF. However, as I've mentioned several times, the NAM is actually trending favorably for a cut-off earlier in the run (when it's actually reliable) with a stronger/more consolidated vorticity max, a slower s/w that's displaced further SW in the MS Valley (& thus has a greater chance to separate from the main streamflow and cut-off). I wouldn't get hung up over this trend in the NAM unless it continues inside 48 hours. In addition, the frequency spectrum of precipitation is dominated by sub-grid scale phenomena that many NWP models can't adequately resolve or forecast even if they can resolve it & is the most poorly forecast variable by NWP
 
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