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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Icon is winter storm here, right at 3.75 to 4 on the county line. CMC looks like it's gonna be stellar. Euro was nice little hit at 12z, so hopefully it can hold serve. Fickle set up, so not alot of wiggle room for negative trends .
 
Rain Cold said:
We’ll end up getting enough precipitation for a significant winter storm only to watch temps climb as we move in. Typical Triangle winter storm. Going to need to move south to see snow. Maybe northern AL.
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We dont accept people from NC. They are cursed

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While the NAM looked funky after 48 hours, the 0z suite thus far has trended towards the wetter/more amped ECMWF/DWD-ICON camp as expected given the GFS's canonical biases in the northern stream & changes upstream in the NW Canadian Territories and Alaska regarding the major ACWB event that occurred there... The GFS and long range NAM are being isolated onto on an island by themselves atm
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jgee322 said:
What do you guys think the timeframe for this hitting northwest Georgia is going to be? If it snows, around what time do you think it will start on Tuesday?


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Late evening

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Rain Cold said:
We’ll end up getting enough precipitation for a significant winter storm only to watch temps climb as we move in. Typical Triangle winter storm. Going to need to move south to see snow. Maybe northern AL.
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Really need precip to be going by 15z Wednesday. I don't want to sit around until late Wednesday aftn to get going

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Lol, CLT and SC areas hosed on GGEM based on temps alone. Prob ra/sn mix.

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accu35 said:
Anyone have a large map of CMC, my TT wont laod up
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Some of the precip only maps did load on there. I'm trying to pull the actual website and can't atm with how my internet is acting as I'm curious about that band but from what I see, it's a big hit for East NC, prob back to RDU.

Well, now Shawn had the map I was trying so hard to pull. Really don't understand the warm area this time, and it's not even in Georgia. It's a close call but I think I'd see snow from that.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Some of the precip only maps did load on there. I'm trying to pull the actual website and can't atm with how my internet is acting as I'm curious about that band but from what I see, it's a big hit for East NC, prob back to RDU.

Well, now Shawn had the map I was trying so hard to pull. Really don't understand the warm area this time, and it's not even in Georgia. It's a close call but I think I'd see snow from that.
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The Canadian is usually too cold. Bad signs since other modeling has mid 30's - 40s.
 
Shawn said:
The Canadian is usually too cold. Bad signs since other modeling has mid 30's - 40s.
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Assuming it's right. I think the Canadian and ICON are likely outliers on the too cold and too warm side.

I'm really not getting the Savannah River valley warm nose thing this January though. Guess it really has to be a "fresh cold air source locked in" if you're in East Georgia and anywhere in South Carolina south of I-85 and not just one that is a bit moderated.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Assuming it's right. I think the Canadian and ICON are likely outliers on the too cold and too warm side.

I'm really not getting the Savannah River valley warm nose thing this January though. Guess it really has to be a "fresh cold air source locked in" if you're in East Georgia and anywhere in South Carolina south of I-85 and not just one that is a bit moderated.
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The next frame warms up for our areas as it has the ptype of "snow" falling:

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As mentioned CMC more precip but it's borderline with temps so I'm posting the clown map but....
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whatalife said:
I was getting ready to post this too. For CAE that ain’t happening with those temps...


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For CAE, the GGEM has it as rain, and as the heavier rates begin, cools us off enough to support it. Basically, when the rates lighten up, r/sn mix or rain. heavier brings more flakes.

For this to work out, I'd like to see the model with at least .30+ of qpf in a 6 hour window.
 
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