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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Again, we don't have temps, but I will be posting the higher resolution UKMET map when I retrieve it here in a few.

Again, expect Euro to increase moisture for some based on UKMET.
 
1300m said:
FWIW - the CMC surface temps are really messed up. At 18z on Wednesday in Wake County the CMC has already dropped 0.1", yet it's still 35/30 AND the 925mb temp is -2C in Wake County. At 12z it had the temps at 26F/20F. There is no way you go from that to 35F/30F with 0.1" QPF falling by 18z.
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Agreed, the diurnal cycle might be too strong on the model and/or too much radiation may be penetrating thru the thick low-mid level clouds, unless we had an exceptionally strong low inland of the Carolinas that's not too feasible to see a substantial warm-up in surface temps like that...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Agreed, the diurnal cycle might be too strong on the model and/or too much radiation may be penetrating thru the thick low-mid level clouds, unless we had an exceptionally strong low inland of the Carolinas that's not too feasible to see a substantial warm-up in surface temps like that...
Click to expand...
Is the main problem with our NWP that our data collection network isn't extensive enough?
 
NWS forecast for states..
Alabama is max 1.1 inches average .3 inch
more here:
Georgia 0.9 0.1
Tennessee 3.2 1.2
North_Carolina 2.7 0.5
Mississippi 1.6 0.7

found on weather bell so I didn't link it
 
crecre9 said:
Is the main problem with our NWP that our data collection network isn't extensive enough?
Click to expand...

Tests had been run in the past of giving the Euro's initialization parameters to the GFS and it's forecast would sometimes outdo the Euro.
 
My UKMET source is slow; but here are the temps into the Carolinas as the precipitation is starting to fall in the Upsate:

TS_TS_PN_060_0000.gif
 
crecre9 said:
Is the main problem with our NWP that our data collection network isn't extensive enough?
Click to expand...

That's definitely part of it and I think it would be beneficiary if we expanded our RAOB network (unfortunately this is very low on the government's list of priorities (if it's on there at all) as you can probably tell by their recent cuts to the NWS). Even if we could measure every point on earth at all points in time to initialize our models, it wouldn't entirely fix the problem because we're limited by the nature of NWP models themselves in that their internal physics, data assimilation schemes, and dynamical cores are far from perfect and we often lose some valuable information about particular phenomena (such as convection) at the expense of computational efficiency & producing output in a timely fashion w/ a coarser grid model...
 
Hey Eric, looking over 850 maps, that UKMET while warm down into parts of the Carolinas, might not be much rain. There is 0.30QPF falling in 6 hours or less in some of those zones that may argue to bring down the flakes faster and try to cool it down just enough. In fact, if we start to see a trend of moisture to get into the 0.30-0.50 range some miraculous way, some could really make out with bandits even with marginal temperatures.

In fact, that UKMET in theory, looks like some of the old ridiculous ensemble members of 4-6 inches of snowfall easily.
 
very similar for Alabama
26855899_1988314727862842_1319989317_n.png
 
Euro swings through as a nice snow band, then legit turns it right to rain for the Midlands of SC. ;) that problem is not going away, sorry guys.
 
Whos up for the Nam, i know i am. Im on lunch break LOL.
 
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