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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

gawxnative said:
Well looking at RADAR Trends.. Seems to bee filling in much more than many model outputs showed. IMO... Thoughts?
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I'm starting to wonder if we get a lot of the heavy dandruff type snow here. Normally the radar has to be in clear air mode to detect the light nature of the precip as every bit of moisture is squeezed out. Will be hard for the models to figure out and could really create major problems with these temps. Watch for it.
 
This isint going to end well for me. The line that has been just to my west for some 8 hours is about to start weakening.
 
Arcc said:
I'm starting to wonder if we get a lot of the heavy dandruff type snow here. Normally the radar has to be in clear air mode to detect the light nature of the precip as every bit of moisture is squeezed out. Will be hard for the models to figure out and could really create major problems with these temps. Watch for it.
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I am guessing that’s kinda what Bham NWS is thinking too. I was shocked to read the discussion and then ramp things up so much. I hope they are right.
 
HRRRX very similar to the RGEM with redevelopment along I-59 corridor I wonder if this will be convective in nature added by sun I'm leaning to this


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Parker said:
I am guessing that’s kinda what Bham NWS is thinking too. I was shocked to read the discussion and then ramp things up so much. I hope they are right.
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I see the local Fox6 guys lowed their totals for the Bham area to 1/2" or less. Went completely against NWS raising theirs.
 
You know just about every model in Jan 28 2014 had a dusting at best for many that got 1-2 inches of snow. Some of these models are showing in upwards of 1/2 inch with 10:1 ratios, so this very well could do what some are thinking and overperform. I hope that it does.

It was interesting to see 3 members of the latest sref for Bham at 2 inches or more and the mean of .64 was a huge jump from under a 1/4 inch at the last one. This is a tough storm to forecast.
 
This is the slowest moving system I have seen in a while. This time yesterday morning I was like it’ll be snowing in Memphis shortly...it took all day and evening for that to happen lol.


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This storm is like 80-90 miles wide. Gonna come and go fast. Not much time to waste if it starts as rain. Not getting my hopes up here in Columbia.
 
Latest blog post on ABC 3340 weather blog is in line with NWS. Saying that 1-1.5 likely and that this afternoon we could get some enhanced rates that drop around 4 inches along I-59 and points east.
 
Flo said:
This storm is like 80-90 miles wide. Gonna come and go fast. Not much time to waste if it starts as rain. Not getting my hopes up here in Columbia.
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True but with the least guidances there is a small reason to be cautiously optimistic...


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Looking at the 03 SREF.. and going by the MBP2 (which generally is showing the highest amount of accumulation in the state of Alabama or at least near the top), you get these totals. Obviously just 1 member, but maybe if this storm over performs, it gives an idea at the possibilities. Blast away..

Florence/Muscle Shoals: 1.56"
North Huntsville (MDQ): 2.5"
Huntsville: 2.26"
Cullman: 2.05"
Ft Payne: 3.42"
Gadsden: 3.29"
Anniston: 3.33"
Birmingham: 2.47"
Tuscaloosa: 2.74"
Calera: 3.66"
Montgomery: 0.76"
Auburn: 1.83"
 
Ryan Sanders said:
Looking at the 03 SREF.. and going by the MBP2 (which generally is showing the highest amount of accumulation in the state of Alabama or at least near the top), you get these totals. Obviously just 1 member, but maybe if this storm over performs, it gives an idea at the possibilities. Blast away..

Florence/Muscle Shoals: 1.56"
North Huntsville (MDQ): 2.5"
Huntsville: 2.26"
Cullman: 2.05"
Ft Payne: 3.42"
Gadsden: 3.29"
Anniston: 3.33"
Birmingham: 2.47"
Tuscaloosa: 2.74"
Calera: 3.66"
Montgomery: 0.76"
Auburn: 1.83"
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Best outcome for us but unlikely at this time
 
Yeah obviously most of the SREF completely disagrees, but if the system spits out more than expected, will be nice to go back and see how these numbers verify.
 
Smoke show weather babe Jennifer Valdez made no mention of the WWA on CBS 46. Showed the RPM. Just goes to show that no one has any idea on what’s going to happen with regard to how much redevelops, if any. She loves to say “flurries”.


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Central NC looking great. That 3 to 4 inches call might be low depending on the rates.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Smoke show weather babe Jennifer Valdez made no mention of the WWA on CBS 46. Showed the RPM. Just goes to show that no one has any idea on what’s going to happen with regard to how much redevelops, if any. She loves to say “flurries”.


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mmm, flurries....
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Just looked at miss dot cam ...Oxford Miss roads already covered. It looks loke according to radar it is on the front end of the snow, much more to come. also snowing in Vicksburg in SW Miss.
 
Ok some things to watch for on models. Yes I know it's almkst good time, but you still have to watch for trends.
1. MOST IMPORTANT is where and when ( how fast) does the jet streak develope. (that will help many of us keep that band alive, for 1, but IMHO is VITAL for us in GA and the Carolinas)
2. Does the upper energy (500mb) slow down a bit more and close off, or at least tilt more
3. Finally... Watch to see where models keep placing the best quality moisture/QPF
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like the 6z ICON backed off quite a bit from earlier runs.
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True but that pretty much brings it in line with all other guidance and it's .5-.75 amounts were probably way overdone up here, it's still .2-.4 with a bulls-eye over central NC up into south central Va.... solid 2-4" event with maybe a localized jackpot of 5-6
 
Spann sounding the horn this morning in his weather extreme video that once the snow starts falling...you've got around 30-45 min before it starts flash freezing on the roadways. He's expecting a pretty significant impact on the roadways apparently.
 
metwannabe said:
For NC most models continue to increase QPF totals ranging .3 - .5, as noted on here and Rah NWS stating it as well now possible 20:1 ratios... should quickly pile up.

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What about temps?


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Brick Tamland said:
RGEM looks great

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Has a small jackpot area just west of Durham up through Roxboro looks like of 5".... again I'm looking at QPF totals due to the possible insane 20:1 ratios, although the kuchera maps on pivotal should be closer to accurate but they could be underdone IF the total qpf is correct.
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BPATL said:
You would think that the largest TV market in the SE would have a better realistic approach to this, This is where Atlanta gets in trouble and it is the producers that are to blame, they tell them not to alarm or panic, lol, the public, then they get egg on their face later,,,
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You would really think they will learn their lesson but they don't.
 
BHS1975 said:
What about temps?


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Temps do not appear to be an issue, the ICON still shows some issues at onset but it has a warm bias (so I've heard) and even Rah NWS not mentioning much about any mix to begin with, if so it will be a rapid change over to all sn and then quickly go to high ratios
 
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