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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

It's not going to be in the single digits in North Georgia and Tennessee. The CMC is laughable by putting that. But other models are warmer there and still have mid 30s like the CMC did. It's the ICON that is on the warmest side.

That said...with the QPF...snow TV if you can pitch the ICON's temps.
 
Brett said:
But once the snow starts it drops to the mid 20s in my area from what I saw
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My area as well but if those temps verify we waste some precip as rn or rn/sn mix before the change over, and then it's only a few hours of sn after a rn/sn mix... it's difficult to get 3" in that scenario. But it's only one model and it's the CMC so who knows... long way to go yet
 
metwannabe said:
My area as well but if those temps verify we waste some precip as rn or rn/sn mix before the change over, and then it's only a few hours of sn after a rn/sn mix... it's difficult to get 3" in that scenario. But it's only one model and it's the CMC so who knows... long way to go yet
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Yeah very true, thanks for the information , I’m definitely learning a lot on this forum!!
 
metwannabe said:
As mentioned CMC more precip but it's borderline with temps so I'm posting the clown map but....
gem_asnow_seus_12.png
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and those amounts are only 10:1 ratios
 
metwannabe said:
As mentioned CMC more precip but it's borderline with temps so I'm posting the clown map but....
gem_asnow_seus_12.png
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Good lord sign me up for this! I just looked at the 0z gfs and it has snow while my temps boarder around 10-12 degrees. It won’t take much to get a decent snow with temps like that. I think the coldest I’ve seen snow here was with temps around 17-18 degrees so this event would shatter that.
 
Really worried there could be a relative break/"snow hole" yet again east of the mountains in NC. Initially, underneath the parent upper level vortex as it crosses the Appalachians, there's stretching which increases the cyclonic vorticity advection aloft and intensifies the ULL and the precipitation shield over the west-central Piedmont. However since elevation doesnt change terribly much across the piedmont and as the trough encroaches on the climatological baroclinic zone just offshore in association w/ the Gulf Stream, there won't be much stretching to aid in intensifying the ULL. Some of the energy will also thus transfer to the Atlantic which will induce sinking motion/descent that could take a big chunk out of this precipitation shield by the time it reaches the eastern piedmont or coastal plain before it probably re-intensifies again further east in association w/ the coastal low offshore
 
Unlike the recent 0z NAM, the same changes in the s/w earlier in the run on the DWD-ICON, CMC, & GFS which also were apparent on the NAM, continued to propagate forward later on in their runs and we got a cut-off much sooner over NC and the mid-south and/or a neutrally tilted trough much earlier... I.e. the "trend" on the long range 0z NAM w/ a more strung out s/w like the GFS showed was almost assuredly a fluke
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unlike the recent 0z NAM, the same changes in the s/w earlier in the run on the DWD-ICON, CMC, & GFS which also were apparent on the NAM, continued to propagate forward later on in their runs and we got a cut-off much sooner over NC and the mid-south and/or a neutrally tilted trough much sooner... The "trend" on the long range 0z NAM w/ a more strung out s/w like the GFS showed was almost assuredly a fluke
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Need these ensembles to start honking a bigger event for me to get any excitement, still. Especially down this way. I remember when we first started tracking this threat, the majority of the GEFS and EPS supported something bigger. Now it's gone to nothing-fringe event down this way. Hopefully better up you guy's away. Either way, the 10 inch+ monster members have been gone for days.
 
1300m said:
FWIW - the CMC surface temps are really messed up. At 18z on Wednesday in Wake County the CMC has already dropped 0.1", yet it's still 35/30 AND the 925mb temp is -2C in Wake County. At 12z it had the temps at 26F/20F. There is no way you go from that to 35F/30F with 0.1" QPF falling by 18z.
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Latest UKMET looks like the CMC in terms of precip.
 
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