Kylo
Member
And Fishel said it may not stick. I didn’t realize it would be that warm tomorrow into Wednesday.
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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
Showmeyourtds
Member
Absolutely....hug your model of choice, but over performance in one place does not translate to over performance elsewhere
BKWRN29
Member
Lol he predicted 1/2” for my area on the december system and I ended up with 6”!! He said that the ground was to warm to support significant accumulation. Big bust.
Stormlover
Member
Saw this. Does anyone know it it's true?
NAM is both too slow and too dry with initialization, particularly west of the Mississippi River. That will likely mean amounts a bit higher
NAM is both too slow and too dry with initialization, particularly west of the Mississippi River. That will likely mean amounts a bit higher
Stormlover
Member
does not mean it won't either...have heard several mets saying it will have to be watched for that
RollTide18
Member
Yeah and the Mets down here are basically talking about two seperate bands in Alabama, the clipper and the band over south central AL as the jet starts to kick so the clipper is going to dry out somewhere. Now, it's not out of the realm of possibility that someone overperforms in Alabama though.
whizrtr
Member
I think folks are comparing it to Dec event when reports were it was over performing in tx and then it over performed in al
Yes it did initialized with not a big enough area of precip back in Arkansas.
Stormlover
Member
From Spann:
Forecast on Track; Significant Travel Issues Expected Tuesday
Forecast on Track; Significant Travel Issues Expected Tuesday
Storm5
Member
An Overachiever in Alabama and an overachiever back towards Memphis are two different ball games. We will have a weakening line regardless , no getting around it . But 2 inches would be better than a half inch for sure
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Storm5
Member
Stormlover
Member
CoreyTheSecond
Member
That's true. But, it's always encouraging
That would be amazing if we ended up with another surprise snow storm this year ColdCoreLow
Member
Watch the expansion of echoes back around TX/AR/LA
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Something to note..HRR innitiation over the last few hours is pretty close to being right on the position of the precip, but way off on the intensity. Snow area seems to be in the richer moisture feed than the rain area.Opposite of what the HRR is showing.Also water vapor imagery seems to be indicating a richer mass of moisture approaching the northern branch( snow areas). May change , but so far HRR ad RAP have been off early on.
Stormlover
Member
From Met Jason Simpson in Huntsville:
It's time to watch radar, watch out the window, and adjust as needed! (1) Expect tough travel once snow begins Wed. morning. (2) A few places around North Alabama still may get more than 2" of snowfall in all; however, most of us will be around 1" up to 2" by afternoon. (3) It's not the size of the snow, it's the amount of snow and ice on the roads that count! I don't care if you're from North Dakota or Eastaboga, you can't drive on ice easily.
It's time to watch radar, watch out the window, and adjust as needed! (1) Expect tough travel once snow begins Wed. morning. (2) A few places around North Alabama still may get more than 2" of snowfall in all; however, most of us will be around 1" up to 2" by afternoon. (3) It's not the size of the snow, it's the amount of snow and ice on the roads that count! I don't care if you're from North Dakota or Eastaboga, you can't drive on ice easily.
JLL1973
Member
I don't know I've seen these lines die out after a while. I'd rather go ahead and get mine. Hope you get yours too
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
How would it not translate further east into the Carolinas in some form or fashion? It's not a coincidence most of the 0z NWP models just beefed up the QPF over central-eastern NC on the 0z suite in concurrence w/ the higher verification further NW. Sure we've seen over performing storms before but you don't think its a little ridiculous to say the least when there's an order of magnitude more snow than forecast upstream to say that this won't implicate those downstream because it certainly has already for central-western TN & AR. This storm has taken overachievement to a whole other dimension in parts of KY & MO. The excess and poorly forecast precipitation here is associated w/ diabatic heating that generates cyclonic potential vorticity which grows exponentially upscale and amplifies the downstream wave pattern. It does certainly have an effect, and it may be pretty significant given what's happened thus far...
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This has the potential to end up 2 inches plus for the whole state of Tennessee. It has been a long time since that happened. Actually hard to do because different setups favor different parts of the state. Already a solid inch here. Good luck to everyone.
NoSnowJoe
Member
David Chandley Fox 5 is convinced that the Atlanta area will have scattered snow showers and flurries, some folks will see nothing. FWIW
Storm5
Member
Not talking about the Carolinas. I said Alabama and Georgia
But yes i agree its stupid how off the models have been so far
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What I said is also applicable there too...
Snowflowxxl
Member
David Chandley said there wouldn’t even be precip in N GA for the early December storm. Nuff said there
GeorgiaGirl
Member
UKMET looked good again, maybe slightly less impressive tho.
Not posting since I'm on my tablet now (I see 1300m did).
Not posting since I'm on my tablet now (I see 1300m did).
I'm not sure of the validity, but hearing some areas are approaching a foot that surely wasn't forecasted.
Get your weather information here. Those clowns on tv are clueless.
StormStalker
Member
HUN did up snow totals in the WWA for my area.
Taylor C
Member
Webber, where did you see that report of almost a foot of snow in southwest Kentucky? I read a post from about an hour ago on Facebook that said something about 6-8inches being reported. Did you see a report of it being closer to a foot then that because that's not really close to a foot.
Lee County AL
Member
Are there any UKMET snowfall total maps ?
RollTide18
Member
Don't think so, just precip, which is really most important at this point.
I noticed on the surface map (as of 3z) a SLP has developed on the arctic front right along the TN/AL border and there's a 1033mb HP situated over the NC/VA border. Could either or both of those features be having an impact on the progression of the arctic front. It's moving south across the Arklatex region a little faster than it is moving SE across states further east.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, I saw it, I posted it here just a short while ago and Stu Ostro of the Weather Channel (presumably a reliable source of information) posted it in a gif image w/ the radar accompanied by surface observations and it was still snowing hard at the time of the 1 foot observation
Looks like Hopkinsville is getting hammered right now
Stormlover
Member
yep, used the limestone/madison line to say up to two west, up to one east..I"m right on the line
Does this include Toney or is it close
Showmeyourtds
Member
Hopkinskiville KY getting absolutely crushed right now. Looks like the boundary has stalled with some heavy training
Lee County AL
Member
Hey RollTide18... its good to see another Central Alabama guy on the board. PS...this time last week we were on the edge of the seats for the Alabama game... now its snow. Lol
From Huntsville said in their discussion also. Thinking about upgrading to a warning in a few counties.
SCweather
Member
Hey man, I’m a fan of it happening, sure. But seeing if it will is another thing. I guess we will find out soon enough!