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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Models are definitely confusing, from a consistency standpoint even within a run. Anyway, these 0z runs tonight are huge so all we can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst but hope we start trending wetter.
 
Here's to hoping that someone in the state gets enough snow from this system to snowchase. Not expecting the Maggie Valley 1 footer that we had in December, but I will drive to jackpot city if there becomes one.
 
Here's one thing we know, Rocky Mount to Brick's area to Metwanna's has been highlighted as the jackpot area on a couple of runs, and so has my county (Chatham). Is it bc of high ratios, but it looks as if the moisture is greater (TN upslope), then dries out to re-establish itself with Atlantic enhancement along the interior coastal plain?.........Yet Triangle area has been favored on the models.
 
RollTide18 said:
Models are definitely confusing, from a consistency standpoint even within a run. Anyway, these 0z runs tonight are huge so all we can do is hope for the best and prepare for the worst but hope we start trending wetter.
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It’s a precarious situation. Slight changes in the ridge out west, the strength of the shortwave, timing of interaction of energy, etc. can create large changes in the end result. Models don’t have the ability to resolve all this at this distance.
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s a precarious situation. Slight changes in the ridge out west, the strength of the shortwave, timing of interaction of energy, etc. can create large changes in the end result. Models don’t have the ability to resolve all this at this distance.
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And they seem to really struggle with jet dynamics.... I recall during the early Dec. system, I think Webb first pointed out that insane jet streak and how there should be more precip (boom it was), the coastal the other week I seem to recall 1300 and Webb both pointing out the jet streak, the right exit region and where the slp should be and more precip on the models (boom it was) and even today Stormsfury, Delta and others pointing out the dual jet signature on the models and there should be more precip..... time will tell.
 
I won't believe any model as far as accumulation until go time. The overall set up and trends yes but amounts, no
 
Well, the great runs of the Euro and NAM started overnight last night. Hope it happens again tonight.
 
metwannabe said:
And they seem to really struggle with jet dynamics.... I recall during the early Dec. system, I think Webb first pointed out that insane jet streak and how there should be more precip (boom it was), the coastal the other week I seem to recall 1300 and Webb both pointing out the jet streak, the right exit region and where the slp should be and more precip on the models (boom it was) and even today Stormsfury, Delta and others pointing out the dual jet signature on the models and there should be more precip..... time will tell.
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Very good point such a super fine line
 
We have a chat room on the front page of the website now. Too much banter is taking place in here.
Also, if you want to talk about the disturbance currently swinging through MS, please use the January main thread.
 
Maybe someone can explain it in more detail, but wouldn't the 850 hPa cyclonic vorticity displayed on the GFS (purple contoured areas) signify more lift out ahead? Which with more lift shouldn't we see more precip than what GFS is advertising right now? (Don't have these maps for NAM so don't know how it compares to GFS). I know shouldn't focus much on what is showing at surface and more on upper level features, but wondering if that is worth paying attention to, or is there a lack of forcing features at 850 or 700mb levels which is causing the line to essentially die off...

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Pup12 said:
For my first post...So with the temperatures expected in North Alabama is it safe to say a half inch to an inch of snow will still cause a lot of road issues? Long time guest and I appreciate ya’lls work.
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Welcome to the forum!! :). Yes it is very possible for this because everything will stick on contact when this event start. It is going to be near 25 degrees when it starts snowing falling into the upper teens when done. Plus you going to look at a higher snow rate of 20:1 so we are actually looking at a 1-3 inches of snow because of this. Something you don’t see everyday in the south.
 
hartselleweather said:
It’s kinda funny how Huntsville doesn’t even issue a special weather statement. They are always the last ones to do something. It’s like they watch what everyone else does first.
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Yeah, over the top conservative on this. Even in the writeup, just didn't seem to really try.
 
JB saying the Euro ensembles are having the right idea!
 
From one of the new members on here, John Deblock of the Birmingham NWS office:
Ok, so here's my take on the upcoming snow threat.

Don't, repeat, DO NOT focus on the amount of snow that is expected to fall. Most areas around here (Birmingham and surrounding communities) look to get less than an inch. To the Northwest, maybe more.

What concerns me is the potential for a period of melting followed by a quick freeze...A situation similar to January 2014. I'm not saying it WILL, but the ingredients may be there. Roads will have a chance to warm tomorrow and into Tuesday before the arctic front pushes through. Depending on how much snow falls and how quickly it falls, we may see a rapid glaze situation.

I'm probably going to pack a few days worth of "camping" supplies when I head to work Tuesday if the forecast remains the same.

Stay tuned!
 
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