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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Glenn Burns is being ridiculous poo-pooing the possibility of dangerous road conditions, even if there is a slight possibility of 1" of snow. We are talking Atlanta Metro here! Did he not learn anything after 2014? As the precip moves in, temps are forecasted to drop into the 20's after approaching 50 down that way today. There will be some initial melt with some quick re-freezing, no matter what falls. Failing to mention the possibility of hazardous road conditions is only begging for the unexpected to make him look foolish yet once again. Let's see who the state DOT listens to!
 
RollTide18 said:
Wouldn't the snow melt and kinda turn into ice if people are out on the roads though? That's kinda of a bold statement by him.
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@Ron Burgundy said above that he saw what Glenn Burns mentioned in which snow kinda blows on the road rather then melt on it straight away. I saw that as well on Feb 9 2016 in Kennesaw GA, when we had quick little snow showers that came and went with peaks of sunshine. However I don't think this will be same thing. But we'll see.
 
1300m said:
I'm not sure if that would apply here. UKMET/GEFS/GEPS also in agreement with Euro and EPS on not limiting heaviest precip axis further west. With the amount of jet forcing I don't see a strong reason for the band to die as it pushes east.
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On the RGEM, and as I mentioned a few times already, a weak coastal low begins to develop and some of the incipient energy/upward motion would begin to transfer further east which could put a damper on totals here. RDU always finds something to screw it up...
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.png
 
1300m said:
That's just not true. There's virtually no QPF further east.
rgem_apcpn_eus_54.png
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It actually is true, surface temps are in the upper 30s-near 40F in Raleigh when the precipitation begins, that's not going to be snow at the onset.
rgem_T2m_seus_52.png
 
SCweather said:
No way that intense band of precip stays straight rain over central SC. There has to be some sort of cooling once the precip starts.
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I've seen snow at 42 degrees. The 850s are very supportive of snow, so I wouldn't give up hope
 
All the local Mets are seeing it as a light event right now. This spells trouble especially if the storm begins at rush hour and the trends improve
 
Um, what just happened. If RGEM, and ICON are right then we won’t be driving anywhere the rest of the week. I love those model outputs!
 
1300m said:
Easily could. Do you think it can't snow at 40F? Do I need to give your professors a call?
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Do you think it can snow w/ surface temps in the upper 30s-near 40F with extremely light QPF in the midst of warm southwesterly flow aloft right off the Gulf? You do realize the few times it snows when temps are above the mid 30s we have extremely cold northwesterly flow in association w/ an Alberta Clipper... This isn't one of those cases. Maybe I should give your professors a call...
 
Snowflowxxl said:
I think 1-2 inches, almost all will stick
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Seems like a good bet if the rgem is right. Hoping it comes in later in the day and not earlier. That will help with amounts and save us from traffic nightmares.
 
Wouldn't places like us here in the upstate benefit from isentropic lift, wouldn't that cause things to ramp up a bit East of the apps?

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1300m said:
Wind direction has absolutely nothing to do with it. It's all about the column temperature and precip rate. The column is below freezing to below 925mb. It almost certainly would be snow within 15 minutes of precipitation starting.
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It actually has a lot to do w/ it, but in any case I'm amazed how you can be so sure of yourself and specific on the evolution of this p-type change this far out. Would be very unfortunate if the 15 minutes of precipitation was too light to overcome the warm layer near the ground.
 
If anybody is gutsy enough to make any call maps for the SE for tomorrow, somebody make a call map thread. I’d be curious to see some of yalls thoughts.
 
I actually think no snow/travel problems is a good thing for me and my family who will have no choice but to travel. So Im being positive.
 
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