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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

@ForsythSnow - the general trend has been for a slow Eastward expansion in the precip over the last day or so...the short rangers have been shrinking that hole a lot. And as others have said, I think they’re having trouble with lift & snow growth zones. You should see token flakes at the very least. I’m not expecting much down this way.
 
3k NAM looked good for central NC.

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The band looks better so far on the ICON but it seems ready to be the warm outlier again. Starts my family up in NW GA as rain....nah.
 
#TeamIcon. I do feel like the precip will hold together better than modeled. Just a hunch. I’m just amazed I’ll be at 46 before it starts tomorrow.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
The band looks better so far on the ICON but it seems ready to be the warm outlier again. Starts my family up in NW GA as rain....nah.
Click to expand...

A quick rain to snow would make sense if the moisture can pop quick enough I would think yeah?


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Wow at the icon, more SW than NAM. This thing is getting good! Everything should be sampled now
 
MBell said:
A quick rain to snow would make sense if the moisture can pop quick enough I would think yeah?


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Click to expand...

I think so but I'm just continuing my agenda of the ICON and CMC are both on the outlier sides of warm and cold.
 
What is causing that to show as rain on the icon and snow on the nam (referring to sc)
 
Loving dat warm nose. NAM has me in the low to mid 30s. ICON? Nah man, you're in the low 40s.

It's an outlier. Just like how the CMC is an on the cold side outlier.
 
WWA for Chattanooga

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1008 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

...Snowfall accumulation possible Tuesday morning through Tuesday
night...

.A strong cold front will bring cold air and moisture to the
area...with snowfall accumulations possible Tuesday morning
through the early morning Wednesday. Cold air is moving in behind
the front with temperatures falling below freezing Tuesday afternoon.

TNZ012>014-035>037-067-081>084-098-099-VAZ001-002-160000-
/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.180116T0900Z-180117T0000Z/
Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Roane-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-Marion-Hamilton-Lee-Wise-
Including the cities of Oneida, La Follette, Tazewell, Wartburg,
Clinton, Oak Ridge, Maynardville, Kingston, Dunlap, Pikeville,
Dayton, Decatur, Jasper, Chattanooga, Jonesville, Wise,
and Norton
1008 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 /908 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO
7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the evening commute on Tuesday. Total snow accumulations of up around
one to three inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
I don't understand how it could even be a warm nose. Not sure how that would even be a thing in this sort of setup. Maybe I'm wrong idk.
 
Everyone that is in East Georgia, South Carolina, and the Charlotte area better hope the ICON truly is a warm outlier as if not, all you're going to see is rain if you see precip.
 
Kylo said:
Wondering why models are keying in on the 85 corridor. Is this what happened in 1984?
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"...vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost"
To an extent yes. Essentially what's happening here as the trough axis passes over the Appalachians mountains and into the piedmont, the column is stretching because the surface elevation changes from several thousand feet to several hundred feet. According to the quasi-geostrophic omega equation, changes in relative vorticity and temperature advection with height dictate upward motion (increasing cyclonic vorticity advection and warm air advection w/ height favor upward motion & vis versa). Henceforth, the vorticity equation dictates that the time tendency (rate of change) of relative vorticity is the sum of the horizontal vorticity advection, vertical vorticity advection, tilting of vorticity about a horizontal axis, stretching, and differential friction. Here we have a trough base w/ cyclonic vorticity being advected in from the west across the apps, increasing cyclonic vorticity advection with height (this is because the relative vorticity max is located in the mid-levels), and the column is stretching all of which lead to increasing cyclonic relative vorticity which according to the QG omega equation says ascent & thus more precipitation is favored. Areas further east of the west-central piedmont like the Triangle & Fayetteville won't have as much column stretching because the elevation doesn't change as drastically across the NC piedmont, which also means that lift isn't favored quite as much there, thus the axis of heaviest snow is centered closer to the Triad & Charlotte.

(Quasi-geostrophic theory referenced here essentially refers to the deduction of large-scale processes in the atmosphere from only a few variables like geopotential height, geostrophic wind, and relative vorticity, etc. It allows us to simplify these processes while retaining the most important information in the process. Things like friction and ageostrophic flow assumed to be negligible above the boundary layer, and stability is assumed to be uniform and hydrostatic balance (i.e. balance between the vertical gravitational and pressure gradient forces) is maintained).
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Everyone that is in East Georgia, South Carolina, and the Charlotte area better hope the ICON truly is a warm outlier as if not, all you're going to see is rain if you see precip.
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It's the timing of day. ICON has it coming into SC dead in the afternoon. However, I have noted that the ICON, much like the EURO has a slight warm bias in the times I have observed it.

Also with that being said, the thermals would support a period of snow with SFC temperatures several degrees ABV FRZ due to the crashing thermal schemes aloft
 
Would make sense that the ICON is keeping us to warm cause the Euro showed something similar temp wise during the 00z run from what I have read on here, they have ties to each other. So... yeh.. Hopefully we aren't just looking at a cold light rain here. But probably..
 
Stormsfury said:
It's the timing of day. ICON has it coming into SC dead in the afternoon. However, I have noted that the ICON, much like the EURO has a slight warm bias in the times I have observed it.

Also with that being said, the thermals would support a period of snow with SFC temperatures several degrees ABV FRZ due to the crashing thermal schemes aloft
Click to expand...
Yeh good point man. Always bad timing here. Just like we never can get a good line of storms through this area because they always roll through MS, AL, and GA during the day and SC at night.
 
I'll need to hug the ICON because the 3k NAM is a complete nothing burger for just east of the apps. Is the ICONs further west solution for that band reasonable? Is it backd up at h5? I know it looked a little sharper and SW but would that alone make it a legit solution?
 
Would love to cash out on the Icon. I'm eager to see how things trend today for MBY. Local mets have upped our snow chances here to 40%.
 
The ICON closed off a 500mb low and keeps it closed longer which allows a SFC low to take shape offshore.

One other thing I noted in NW SC is the famous "warm SFC configuration". Arctic air not getting over the mountains, going around so to speak...and maybe a slight bit of downsloping...which always has a negative impact in these light events
 
Good trends is all we can ask for now. Then just have to see what actually happens.
 
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