Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, I really don't get it... What is the GFS seeing that is preventing the precip? At first, I thought downsloping was the obvious choice. However, the winds are from the SW and we even have a slight gulf tap. Maybe it's the fact that the trough axis never goes negative. The model doesn't believe the moisture will advect up on the east side of the apps with that look. Maybe Delta, 1300, or Webb sees something I don't. What am I missing here?

Maybe they can correct me if I'm wrong, but if you look at the 700MB and 850MB vort maps, the GFS doesn't have flow from the SW, but instead has it from the NW, then going E. The NAM has it coming from the SW, so the mid level moisture is able to be pulled into the developing system.

 

[Forevertothee]

View attachment 2849 View attachment 2850 View attachment 2851 View attachment 2852 View attachment 2853 View attachment 2854 View attachment 2855 Long post about the nam and how I think there should have been more precipitation and how the models have trended better.

Chris, very interesting post. Gives me hope for the lower Upstate of SC. This area has been skipped to the WEST, NORTH, EAST, and SOUTH with the two snow storms. Your post has me anxiously awaiting the next EURO.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Maybe they can correct me if I'm wrong, but if you look at the 700MB and 850MB vort maps, the GFS doesn't have flow from the SW, but instead has it from the NW, then going E. The NAM has it coming from the SW, so the mid level moisture is able to be pulled into the developing system.

Catching up...you & I (among others) need some help from the SW flow... looks like things dry up as they come down the slopes of the mountains.

 

[Storm5]

Ukmet looks great

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[Stormlover]

Please keep this in mind yall.. Great Explanation Post!!

the thing is to add it to everything else as another look...what is nice with them is to notice the trend..up or down

 

[SCweather]

Chris, very interesting post. Gives me hope for the lower Upstate of SC. This area has been skipped to the WEST, NORTH, EAST, and SOUTH with the two snow storms. Your post has me anxiously awaiting the next EURO.

Yeh we are all hoping for the best here in SC. Especially people in the Central Midlands and parts of the upstate

 

[deltadog03]

Ladies and Gents......The DOC is off and running.

 

[accu35]

Ukmet looks great

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

Map? Please sir

 

[deltadog03]

hmmmm hr36

 

[Storm5]

.

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[deltadog03]

lots of moisture over TX and AR at hr 48...looks more tilted vs 0z run

 

[ForsythSnow]

I smell a good run. Let's hope I'm not smelling something else! Looks good so far. I think it's coming in line with the NAM's trend.

 

[MBell]

I smell a good run. Let's hope I'm not smelling something else! Looks good so far. I think it's coming in line with the NAM's trend.

Let’s hope......


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I smell cinamon rolls


But no really does looked improved so far!

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Little bit more SW flow of the GOM as well 850mb's temps little warmer to

 

[ForsythSnow]

12Z

0Z

 

[deltadog03]

I don't think its going to make it folks....the southern part of the qpf (00z run) is not there this run so far.

 

[deltadog03]

maybe spoke too soon? lol
precip breaking out hr 72

 

[Jon]

Definitely digging more thru 64, I could see this run cutting off before 90hrs, it actually May briefly at 72....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Storm5]

Looks the same for my area to the west . Nam looks better

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk