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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Mr. Grinch said:
Dew points recover well into the 20s ahead of this system it would be entirely possible we would have a deep enough layer of above freezing air near the surface we start as rain or mix before going to snow.

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If the system continue to moisten up (higher qpf) this won't bother me that much, will be able to make a ground significantly after the changeover but if we keep meager amounts obviously more concerning wasting the initial hit of precip. Then it becomes a race to see when we change and how much is left....
 
Mr. Grinch said:
Dew points recover well into the 20s ahead of this system it would be entirely possible we would have a deep enough layer of above freezing air near the surface we start as rain or mix before going to snow.

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Yeah this is what I was afraid of the other night and mentioned to 1300m, the start of the event maybe too warm for snow at least in the lowest levels so we might have to waste some QPF on pushing the melting layer to the ground to get a changover to wet snow
 
Storm5 said:
ICON being talked about like it's the new Euro.




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The DWD ICON is in fact the Euro in many regards. As I discussed a while back on this forum, the ICON's slow physics paramterizations were imported from the ECMWF. While the model is far from perfect it tends to be well NW of other more progressive guidance with east coast cyclones and overrunning events and was one of the few models that showed much of anything west of I95 in NC during the last event. It's generally as good or better than GFS or CMC. Also considering it looks like the Euro and NAM, and the GFS/CMC are trending towards this solution, the ICON is a legit NWP model.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is what I was afraid of the other night and mentioned to 1300m, the start of the event maybe too warm for snow at least in the lowest levels so we might have to waste some QPF on pushing the melting layer to the ground to get a changover to wet snow
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Just looking at some text data from the nam the Iowa State cobb data keeps rdu as primarily rnsn vs all snow. Might just be reacting to an above freezing bl but it's enough to give me pause, if for some reason that above freezing bl is deep

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1300m said:
Surface temps do not detemine ptype. We've covered this. At worst it starts as rain/snow mix for half hour at worst at RDU. But if any appreciable precip falls it will not be rain.
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Boundary layer temps are indicative of above freezing layers just off the ground which does in fact melt or partially melt hydrometeors before reaching the ground. Even with cold low-mid level temps you're often hard pressed to get all snow with temps above 35-36F esp if the precip isn't that heavy which maybe the case here esp at the onset. At least you're finally admitting there's a chance we could mix, a few days ago you were fairly steadfast on it not happening at all.
 
1300m said:
Surface temps do not detemine ptype. We've covered this. At worst it starts as rain/snow mix for half hour at worst at RDU. But if any appreciable precip falls it will not be rain.
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Keep in mind I also never said this would not be a majority or mostly snow and it likely will be here.
 
1300m said:
I haven't changed my opinion at all. And we were talking about verbatim what the Euro was showing. Get your facts straight.
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Ok whatever you say lol you definitely got pretty upset when I mentioned the potential for mixing as the Euro showed a few nights ago...
 
Any thoughts on the Ukmet? Doesn't look as if it cuts off like the Euro or NAM but may be close?
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Webberweather53 said:
The DWD ICON is in fact the Euro in many regards. As I discussed a while back on this forum, the ICON's slow physics paramterizations were imported from the ECMWF. While the model is far from perfect it tends to be well NW of other more progressive guidance with east coast cyclones and overrunning events and was one of the few models that showed much of anything west of I95 in NC during the last event. It's generally as good or better than GFS or CMC. Also considering it looks like the Euro and NAM, and the GFS/CMC are trending towards this solution, the ICON is a legit NWP model.
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It has performed well with some systems but the one the past Friday it was horrendous. It never had me getting any frozen precipitation. We were frozen the entire event. I have been following the ICON and could not figure out why it missed so bad. Do you have any thoughts ?
 
1300m said:
No I corrected you on your erroneous analysis of what the Euro was outputting, which apparently you are still pouting about.
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Webberweather53 said:
Ok whatever you say lol you definitely got pretty upset when I mentioned the potential for mixing as the Euro showed a few nights ago...
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Guys....

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Raleigh rarely if ever gets an all snow event, the last storm was an outlier in this regard, there's almost always some mixing or liquid QPF sprinkled into even the best storms (Jan 2000 for ex). If the models are off even by a little with boundary layer temps and we end up either closer to freezing or in the upper 30s it will make a difference with p-type near the onset. Regardless this will probably be at least two-thirds-three-fourths all snow esp west of I95 with some of the snow near the tail end of the event being of similar character to the last event.
 
Stormlover said:
SREF mean is up to .51 of snow for Huntsville and rising now as it starts to catch on
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Birmingham mean was .3 this morning with a max of 2 inches. I love watching those plumes. They were fantastic back in December.

It has now moved to .25 mean for Birmingham with several over an inch. Hope to see that number rise.
 
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