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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

IMO the low center won’t get anywhere close enough to the coast for WAA. This event lacks moisture which in the end will help more than hurt.


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If that is true then the western areas will miss again
 
Shane will you explain to me how this is a Miller A vs Miller B? I can take to Banter or other if necessary. Thanks!!!
You could argue that there are some Miller B qualities to this system with the snow to our west the the coastal formation. However there really is no clipper low that transfers energy to a southeast coastal low. The SE coastal low spawns as the upper trough tilts/closes and the polar jet dives deep into the region and you get some enhancement from the subtropical jet. To me that makes the SE low independent from any original clipper low and a Miller A

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ICON is looking better at 12Z...It's trying to rebuild the band across South Central AL/into GA at hour 72. Energy is further SW even compared to the NAM.
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh66-72.gif
72.png
 
Time to start keeping track of the SR models. Here's the HRRRX at 36. Looks better than the ICON and NAM at this hour. This can be our first test of the HRRRX VS the HRRR.
hrrrx_ref_frzn_seus_36.png
 
ICON has a nice band of moisture but keeps temps a lot more marginal for a lot of areas. Especially in SC
Oh yeah, we are supposed to hit 50 Tuesday . We will probably get plenty of moisture, and rain
 
Yeah precip isn't a problem at all on it, the problem is it looks like all rain after crossing the lake.
Well precip definitely was a problem at first and still in a way probably is until we get more and more trends for more coming in. Now we fight off temp issues.
 
Well precip definitely was a problem at first and still in a way probably is until we get more and more trends for more coming in. Now we fight off temp issues.

It's odd, as the ICON is +9 on the GFS. The GFS would be workable (as in it'd go down in time) if there was precip and there isn't.
 
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