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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Icon is winter storm here, right at 3.75 to 4 on the county line. CMC looks like it's gonna be stellar. Euro was nice little hit at 12z, so hopefully it can hold serve. Fickle set up, so not alot of wiggle room for negative trends .
 
Rain Cold said:
We’ll end up getting enough precipitation for a significant winter storm only to watch temps climb as we move in. Typical Triangle winter storm. Going to need to move south to see snow. Maybe northern AL.
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We dont accept people from NC. They are cursed

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While the NAM looked funky after 48 hours, the 0z suite thus far has trended towards the wetter/more amped ECMWF/DWD-ICON camp as expected given the GFS's canonical biases in the northern stream & changes upstream in the NW Canadian Territories and Alaska regarding the major ACWB event that occurred there... The GFS and long range NAM are being isolated onto on an island by themselves atm
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jgee322 said:
What do you guys think the timeframe for this hitting northwest Georgia is going to be? If it snows, around what time do you think it will start on Tuesday?


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Late evening

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Rain Cold said:
We’ll end up getting enough precipitation for a significant winter storm only to watch temps climb as we move in. Typical Triangle winter storm. Going to need to move south to see snow. Maybe northern AL.
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Really need precip to be going by 15z Wednesday. I don't want to sit around until late Wednesday aftn to get going

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Lol, CLT and SC areas hosed on GGEM based on temps alone. Prob ra/sn mix.

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accu35 said:
Anyone have a large map of CMC, my TT wont laod up
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Some of the precip only maps did load on there. I'm trying to pull the actual website and can't atm with how my internet is acting as I'm curious about that band but from what I see, it's a big hit for East NC, prob back to RDU.

Well, now Shawn had the map I was trying so hard to pull. Really don't understand the warm area this time, and it's not even in Georgia. It's a close call but I think I'd see snow from that.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Some of the precip only maps did load on there. I'm trying to pull the actual website and can't atm with how my internet is acting as I'm curious about that band but from what I see, it's a big hit for East NC, prob back to RDU.

Well, now Shawn had the map I was trying so hard to pull. Really don't understand the warm area this time, and it's not even in Georgia. It's a close call but I think I'd see snow from that.
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The Canadian is usually too cold. Bad signs since other modeling has mid 30's - 40s.
 
Shawn said:
The Canadian is usually too cold. Bad signs since other modeling has mid 30's - 40s.
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Assuming it's right. I think the Canadian and ICON are likely outliers on the too cold and too warm side.

I'm really not getting the Savannah River valley warm nose thing this January though. Guess it really has to be a "fresh cold air source locked in" if you're in East Georgia and anywhere in South Carolina south of I-85 and not just one that is a bit moderated.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Assuming it's right. I think the Canadian and ICON are likely outliers on the too cold and too warm side.

I'm really not getting the Savannah River valley warm nose thing this January though. Guess it really has to be a "fresh cold air source locked in" if you're in East Georgia and anywhere in South Carolina south of I-85 and not just one that is a bit moderated.
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The next frame warms up for our areas as it has the ptype of "snow" falling:

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As mentioned CMC more precip but it's borderline with temps so I'm posting the clown map but....
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whatalife said:
I was getting ready to post this too. For CAE that ain’t happening with those temps...


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For CAE, the GGEM has it as rain, and as the heavier rates begin, cools us off enough to support it. Basically, when the rates lighten up, r/sn mix or rain. heavier brings more flakes.

For this to work out, I'd like to see the model with at least .30+ of qpf in a 6 hour window.
 
It's not going to be in the single digits in North Georgia and Tennessee. The CMC is laughable by putting that. But other models are warmer there and still have mid 30s like the CMC did. It's the ICON that is on the warmest side.

That said...with the QPF...snow TV if you can pitch the ICON's temps.
 
Brett said:
But once the snow starts it drops to the mid 20s in my area from what I saw
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My area as well but if those temps verify we waste some precip as rn or rn/sn mix before the change over, and then it's only a few hours of sn after a rn/sn mix... it's difficult to get 3" in that scenario. But it's only one model and it's the CMC so who knows... long way to go yet
 
metwannabe said:
My area as well but if those temps verify we waste some precip as rn or rn/sn mix before the change over, and then it's only a few hours of sn after a rn/sn mix... it's difficult to get 3" in that scenario. But it's only one model and it's the CMC so who knows... long way to go yet
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Yeah very true, thanks for the information , I’m definitely learning a lot on this forum!!
 
metwannabe said:
As mentioned CMC more precip but it's borderline with temps so I'm posting the clown map but....
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Good lord sign me up for this! I just looked at the 0z gfs and it has snow while my temps boarder around 10-12 degrees. It won’t take much to get a decent snow with temps like that. I think the coldest I’ve seen snow here was with temps around 17-18 degrees so this event would shatter that.
 
Dang it if the CMC is right look at those precip totals in ENC too bad temps are a major issue
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Really worried there could be a relative break/"snow hole" yet again east of the mountains in NC. Initially, underneath the parent upper level vortex as it crosses the Appalachians, there's stretching which increases the cyclonic vorticity advection aloft and intensifies the ULL and the precipitation shield over the west-central Piedmont. However since elevation doesnt change terribly much across the piedmont and as the trough encroaches on the climatological baroclinic zone just offshore in association w/ the Gulf Stream, there won't be much stretching to aid in intensifying the ULL. Some of the energy will also thus transfer to the Atlantic which will induce sinking motion/descent that could take a big chunk out of this precipitation shield by the time it reaches the eastern piedmont or coastal plain before it probably re-intensifies again further east in association w/ the coastal low offshore
 
Unlike the recent 0z NAM, the same changes in the s/w earlier in the run on the DWD-ICON, CMC, & GFS which also were apparent on the NAM, continued to propagate forward later on in their runs and we got a cut-off much sooner over NC and the mid-south and/or a neutrally tilted trough much earlier... I.e. the "trend" on the long range 0z NAM w/ a more strung out s/w like the GFS showed was almost assuredly a fluke
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unlike the recent 0z NAM, the same changes in the s/w earlier in the run on the DWD-ICON, CMC, & GFS which also were apparent on the NAM, continued to propagate forward later on in their runs and we got a cut-off much sooner over NC and the mid-south and/or a neutrally tilted trough much sooner... The "trend" on the long range 0z NAM w/ a more strung out s/w like the GFS showed was almost assuredly a fluke
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Need these ensembles to start honking a bigger event for me to get any excitement, still. Especially down this way. I remember when we first started tracking this threat, the majority of the GEFS and EPS supported something bigger. Now it's gone to nothing-fringe event down this way. Hopefully better up you guy's away. Either way, the 10 inch+ monster members have been gone for days.
 
1300m said:
FWIW - the CMC surface temps are really messed up. At 18z on Wednesday in Wake County the CMC has already dropped 0.1", yet it's still 35/30 AND the 925mb temp is -2C in Wake County. At 12z it had the temps at 26F/20F. There is no way you go from that to 35F/30F with 0.1" QPF falling by 18z.
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Latest UKMET looks like the CMC in terms of precip.
 
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