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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

We've been trending favorably for more QPF in the SE US until hour 60 in most NWP models w/ this system, thereafter the entire longwave has looked weaker...
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Webberweather53 said:
Tell that to March 1927, March 1960, January 2000, January 2003, & March 2010. Just because a storm crosses the Appalachians doesn't automatically mean its going to be completely crippled when it comes out on the other side. These are just a few examples of success stories in NC...
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I can also find analogs where NW flow events produced snowfall in the upstate but that doesn't make it the status quo. Elevation will kill a system and unless you have some way to enhance it after it gets ripped apart at the top of grandfather mountain it's not going to produce for folks on the other side. ENC has a redeveloping coastal so I'm not so much talking about them but for the rest of us on the Leeside there is nothing special here to breathe life back into this thing
 
rgem
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I can also find analogs where NW flow events produced snowfall in the upstate but that doesn't make it the status quo. Elevation will kill a system and unless you have some way to enhance it after it gets ripped apart at the top of grandfather mountain it's not going to produce for folks on the other side. ENC has a redeveloping coastal so I'm not so much talking about them but for the rest of us on the Leeside there is nothing special here to breathe life back into this thing
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This isn't true at all, nor is this a status quo event by any means. Usually system that crosses the mountains into NC and dies are those embedded within northwesterly flow aloft where there's no additional source of moisture to tap into to allow the entire wave to reintensify and re-moisten the low-mid levels (granted vorticity stretching helps in those cases). Here the flow is out of the southwest for at least 36 hours before the trough reaches the Carolinas...
 
Webberweather53 said:
This isn't true at all, nor is this a status quo event by any means. Usually system that crosses the mountains into NC and dies are those embedded within northwesterly flow aloft where there's no additional source of moisture to tap into to allow the entire wave to reintensify (granted vorticity stretching helps in those cases). Here the flow is out of the southwest for at least 36 hours before the trough reaches the Carolinas...
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If this thing is solely dependent on the flow out of the southwest then why isn't it translating to the theoretical surface?
 
RollTide18 said:
Sure the depiction of the moisture going poof could be right but I'm trying to the remember the last time a precip band extending 300-400 miles goes poof within a three hour span.
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The main support is moving to the NE. It's gonna die no doubt . Just a matter of when

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If this thing is solely dependent on the flow out of the southwest then why isn't it translating to the theoretical surface?
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As 1300m mentioned earlier, the weaker ULL later in the run closer to truncation according to the QG omega equation (where the vertical differential in vorticity advection and temperature (thickness) advection dictate upward motion) the more strung out trough later in the run near truncation on the NAM doesn't favor as much QPF. However, as I've mentioned several times, the NAM is actually trending favorably for a cut-off earlier in the run (when it's actually reliable) with a stronger/more consolidated vorticity max, a slower s/w that's displaced further SW in the MS Valley (& thus has a greater chance to separate from the main streamflow and cut-off). I wouldn't get hung up over this trend in the NAM unless it continues inside 48 hours. In addition, the frequency spectrum of precipitation is dominated by sub-grid scale phenomena that many NWP models can't adequately resolve or forecast even if they can resolve it & is the most poorly forecast variable by NWP
 
ICON definitely beefed up precip from the 18z run but temps are also an issue in the Carolina's... especially I-40 south
 
As expected, temperature problems for the SC Midlands, up to CLT even. This is what I was afraid of, even with precipitation:

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Shawn said:
As expected, temperature problems for the SC Midlands, up to CLT even. This is what I was afraid of, even with precipitation:

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Same here, granted verbatim RDU goes over to all snow after wasting a little QPF on melting hydrometeors to overcome the near-surface above freezing layer. Mixing may be a limiting factor to snowfall potential southeast of Greensboro-Roxboro
 
So, the Euro is basically too warm here, the Icon, the GFS likely would be with precip, the NAM likely would be with precip.

Sorry CAE friends.
 
The icon looks warmer than all models based on precip type. 534 cutting through Charlotte still showing rain?
 
The GFS took a baby step in the right direction towards getting cut-off ULL with a slower s/w over the MS Valley... It's probably still way too progressive (& thus too far NE) in the end.
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Now, on the GFS, it makes a lot more sense for it to be bone dry in Georgia and South Carolina because the dewpoints are bone dry compared to everything else. It actually did very well with the coastal/south Georgia/southern SC/East NC deal earlier on dewpoints.

Maybe it's wrong but still.

The ICON has actually ran a few degrees warmer than everything else. Perhaps it's right though.
 
this is just a disaster scenario for South Carolina. Cold air following precip over the mountains smh we've seen this 10,000 times and it doesn't work out. Same thing happened here southeast of I85 in early December. Cold air source east of apps = no snow
 
We’ll end up getting enough precipitation for a significant winter storm only to watch temps climb as we move in. Typical Triangle winter storm. Going to need to move south to see snow. Maybe northern AL.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
this is just a disaster scenario for South Carolina. Cold air following precip over the mountains smh we've seen this 10,000 times and it doesn't work out. Same thing happened here southeast of I85 in early December. Cold air source east of apps = no snow
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Never fails. 32 or below when its dry. In comes the rain and its 40.
 
What do you guys think the timeframe for this hitting northwest Georgia is going to be? If it snows, around what time do you think it will start on Tuesday?


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