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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

I feel this event will over perform given there are light snow flurry returns on radar here this morning. Saw one or two flurries briefly.


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Sooo Memphis...what are we gonna do?
 

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Storm5 said:
Birmingham will most likely be replaced with a winter weather advisory

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Yep I agree not sure why winter storm watch local met is saying only up to one inch lol
 
Rick said:
Yep I agree not sure why winter storm watch local met is saying only up to one inch lol
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Even im their AFD they say snowfall amounts dont meet the winter storm watch criteria of 2 inches. But they keep talking about an enhanced snowfall band . just seems like 2014 is on their mind as they pound home the possible traffic impacts.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
438 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH LATER...

.An arctic front will move through the Mid-South this afternoon
into this evening. Light snow will develop, first across very
northern parts of the Mid-South then shift south tonight into
Tuesday. Snow will intensify over East Central Arkansas, Northwest
Mississippi into much West Tennessee later tonight. Snow will
taper off from northwest to southeast on Tuesday. Arctic air will
rush into the region tonight and wind chills will drop to zero or
below across northern sections of the Mid-South.

ARZ049-058-MSZ001-002-007-008-010>013-020-021-152100-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0002.180116T0300Z-180116T1800Z/
Lee AR-Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Tunica-Tate-Coahoma-Quitman-
Panola-Lafayette-Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-
Including the cities of Marianna, Helena, West Helena, Southaven,
Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Tunica, Senatobia, Clarksdale,
Marks, Batesville, Oxford, Charleston, Water Valley,
and Coffeeville
438 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Moderate snow expected. Plan on difficult travel
conditions, including during the morning commute on Tuesday.
Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Arkansas and North Mississippi.

* WHEN...9 PM today to noon Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.
 
Local Met forecast for HUN
ce_snow-totals-contours.png
 
I know that Dave Toleris gets a lot of flack for his behavior on social media. However, he is a good meteorologist and puts out some quality blogs and videos. Here's his most recent video that outlines all of the ingredients and details to our system. It's worth watching to learn how all of the pieces come together. This was issued last night. The only drawback I see is that the models have backed off on the stronger closed low scenario for now.
 
Winter weather advisory for my area Winter storm warning for counties just to my west in NW MS. Congrats to them again
 
Looks like MEG went with 2-4 south of I40 and 1-2 north of I40. I think that's the right call atm. It has been a long time since we have had this setup. Usually these anafrontal systems over perform with an Arctic front. This will be the second time in 5 days we get powder. Still have 3 to 4 on the ground.
 
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Like most if not all Deep South Winter events, this one will have some surprises...You can count on it

KBMX absolutely made the right call in going with a WSW
 
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Interesting the CMC produced a closed off ULL and all the models trended away from it overnight. Technically the Euro still has it, briefly closing at 66hrs but opening back up and not closing until it’s too late (out to sea). I’ll continue harping on the fact that we need at least some sort of cutoff for Central NC and triad to overperform with this event. But I’m not saying we can’t have a decent snow over NC. Impacts also will be felt tenfold regardless, given the morning timing.
 
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Storm5 said:
Birmingham will most likely be replaced with a winter weather advisory

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Yea. Kind of ridiculous to put out a WSW when zero guidance shows we will meet the criteria...HSV has it right with an advisory. May be able to remove that if qpf doesnt juice up.
 
DadOfJax said:
Yea. Kind of ridiculous to put out a WSW when zero guidance shows we will meet the criteria...HSV has it right with an advisory. May be able to remove that if qpf doesnt juice up.
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To be fair all the offices coordinated

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Good disco in HUN AFD:
not sold on the GFS
QPF, given that it does not appear to be resolving the synoptic
setup very well. Looking at forecast soundings, the GFS dries the
mid levels during the day, even while the upper levels and lower
levels are completely saturated. This drying is most likely due to
the GFS veering the winds to the west in this layer a bit early,
given the strengthening and eastward moving upper trough. Other
models, including the ECMWF and NAM, do not have as much drying as
they keep winds more backed to the southwest through the day. So with
this forecast, will lean more towards the ECMWF and NAM with greater
emphasis on the ECMWF given its consistency over the past few runs.
This would give the area between 0.04 and 0.08 inch of QPF, so not a
considerable amount more than the GFS. Given the snow ratios
mentioned above, this amount of QPF would equate to between 0.5 and 1
inch of snow across the region. Now, I`ve said this in the
discussion the last few mornings and I want to reiterate it. Just
because these amounts seem low does not mean they will not cause
significant impacts. It`s going to be very cold outside. In fact,
temperatures will likely be in the lower 20s. So the snow will stick
and it`s likely that it will stick to the roads. Given the warmer
conditions today, there`s a potential for the snow to initially melt
on contact and then refreeze in the colder temperatures. So don`t let
the low snow totals fool you. For these reasons, have decided to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area on Tuesday,
beginning at 3 am in NW Alabama and at 6 am everywhere else.
 
The main thing about this threat if simply plays out as some of Models has it will be the travel and workers commute issues thru Metro areas a half of inch or so of snow in ATL near rush hour with super cold ground temps and 20s temps is alot like the nightmare people endured in 2014.
 
Flurry said:
I think all models are going to juice up a little today


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Well, the 09 SREF Plumes are out. Looks very similar to 03z to me. Maybe a little more on the first wave west of the mountains and a little less east??
 
This system will cover a large area of the United States. Outside of Florida every state east of the Mississippi will see snowfall.

snku_acc.conus.png
 
malak05 said:
The main thing about this threat if simply plays out as some of Models has it will be the travel and workers commute issues thru Metro areas a half of inch or so of snow in ATL near rush hour with super cold ground temps and 20s temps is alot like the nightmare people endured in 2014.
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What time should the snow arrive in Atlanta?
 
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