Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

[Brick Tamland]

ICON is wrong on temps here. I will eat two dozen bags of crow if RDU reports more than one hour of rain/snow mix at onset. There its on record and I will revisit this post after the event lol.

Marked.

 

[Storm5]

Turning into an overrunning event with the Gulf getting involved

This, hell even the initial band of snow that develops back towards the West is more a reflection of the trough and the SW flow . Clippers normally bring their own moisture, this moisture is SW flow related . Now over Missouri and northern Arkansas that's clipper related moisture

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC just delivered the goods to upstate sc

 

[Tarheel1]

GEM drivers .3+ QPF in the upstate. We can afford some totals cut by rain with that type of precip

Finish off with temps crashing into the 20s, and some higher ratios, could we score a 3 incher, with rgem, I think so! We are close to the .5

 

[Brick Tamland]

CMC just delivered the goods to upstate scView attachment 2945

Looks like 1 to 3 for most of NC, too. Nice!

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Snowmagedon 2.0 hmmmmmmm ponder on this, I will

 

[jaymackd3]

When do the next SREF plumes come out?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Only thing I hate about this if this works out is it's a quick hitter.

 

[mjscott30]

I'm really surprised at how well models are trending!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Finish off with temps crashing into the 20s, and some higher ratios, could we score a 3 incher, with rgem, I think so! We are close to the .5

Could be a surprise but you and I both know how long it takes to get the cold air south of I85. I think the cold air to our southwest may be helping aid the cold air delivery?

 

[Avalanche]

Only thing I hate about this if this works out is it's a quick hitter.

Narrow band with some training effect.

 

[Tarheel1]

Only thing I hate about this if this works out is it's a quick hitter.

Does it matter if you get 2" over 1hr or 5 hours?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

It’s a quick hitter but temps are gonna be in the freezer all day Wednesday. Snow ain’t going no where!

 

[farleydawg792]

RGEM reversed the east ATL donut hole and gave us a decent amount of snowfall for a change.

And that ends at 12z and the radar simulation would show more snow falling afterwards.... not much more though.

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[Stormsfury]

CMC just delivered the goods to upstate scView attachment 2945

It would likely deliver all the way to tge coast in SC given a thermal check aloft. On TT, where areas of rain are showing along the inland coastal region, it would start as, but thermals aloft crash exponentially and within 6 hours during the middle, the coastal region already has 850mb temperatures of -5 and lower.

Over NC, 700mb and 850mb temperatures are unbelievably low, indicating potentially an unstable setting, with some convective elements getting involved.

 

[Kylo]

Looks like 1 to 3 for most of NC, too. Nice!

We may be on the fringe of the heavy snows but it appears we will see some snow which is always nice.

 

[Brick Tamland]

We may be on the fringe of the heavy snows but it appears we will see some snow which is always nice.

I think we'll see snow. How much depends on the ratios.

 

[ontherocks]

So we do or do not believe in the NAM snow hole in NEGA? Is the determining factor whether or not this taps the gulf or is something else at work?

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Ha! Goofy says no for Atlanta! Gotta love it

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It’s a quick hitter but temps are gonna be in the freezer all day Wednesday. Snow ain’t going no where!

Sun will melt snow even with temps below freezing.

 

[Avalanche]

Webb you are a mesoscale man, do you think areas just west of the Triangle (Chatham/Randolph/Alamance/Guilford) could fare better than Wake/Durham?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Ha! Goofy says no for Atlanta! Gotta love it

It’s the gfs.....

 

[Jeremy Camp]

I bet you the RDPS will end up verifying tomorrow!. We'll just have to see. I'm not holding my breath at this time!.

 

[GaStorm]

When was the last time a clipper grabbed gulf moisture? Great to see the flow more SW than NW for a change!

 

[Arcc]

Nah...if Gulf tap happens, it will occur along 20/59 corridor as well...and thats where your 20:1 ratios will be.

Possible, but the greatest moisture transport won't happen until the trough tilts and that will occur until the front is across southern AL unless it trends more quicker.

As far as ratios are concerned, don't count on anything greater than 10/1 and then be surprised if it is greater.


Edit: I meant to add "if" this occurs and there is enough lift to realize the moisture feed.

 

[NCSNOW]

I think we'll see snow. How much depends on the ratios.

Brick we'll get the ratios in NC. Im thinking atleast 13-15:1 over my way. Put my call map out for my little 4 county area and went with 2-5. Really think someone can lollipop and get to the 6 inch mark along 85 corridor.

 

[MichaelJ]

Still going to wait until the evening EURO comes in to count the chickens but the trends are good. After that the NAM will do a good job on the thermal profiles although it does tend to magnify the QPF some. Someone in the Triad or foothills could see some heavy snow for a few hours and get a lollipop of 8" or so IF trends continue, I am putting that area being Frosty's for my money

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I don't think the GFS is going to be right. It's trending towards more moisture but it likely won't get to what the final solution is.

 

[Storm5]

Possible, but the greatest moisture transport won't happen until the trough tilts and that will occur until the front is across southern AL unless it trends more quicker.

As far as ratios are concerned, don't count on anything greater than 10/1 and then be surprised if it is greater.

I agree we need a quicker tilt . But with that saod the trends overall are much better

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[Storm5]

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[SCweather]

One can only hope the temps are wrong for SC. Would hate to waste moisture on rain. Hopefully the switch will be quick after the onset of precip.

 

[Webberweather53]

Webb you are a mesoscale man, do you think areas just west of the Triangle (Chatham/Randolph/Alamance/Guilford) could fare better than Wake/Durham?

Absolutely, see some of my earlier posts in this thread and I discuss the reasons why I think this is the case.

 

[DadOfJax]

I agree we need a quicker tilt . But with that saod the trends overall are much better

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Has there been a tilt trend at all?

 

[Stormlover]

RAP at 6AM

 

[Storm5]

Has there been a tilt trend at all?

There has been a trend towards more tilt hense the reason we are seeing the big influx of moisture. But we need it quicker than what's being shown currently.

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[Brick Tamland]

UK looks nice.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Interesting to see the trends little scary over here in E AL having to wait on redevelopment of band to cash in always a thin line there... But for a Clipper I would cash in right now


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[Avalanche]

That pic is a thing of beauty Brick.

 

[Avalanche]

Also the UK seems to follow the GFS in its depiction of the interior coastal plain (Wake Forest to Roanoke Rapids)being the biggest of the winners here for Central NC.

 

[Arcc]

Interesting to see the trends little scary over here in E AL having to wait on redevelopment of band to cash in always a thin line there... But for a Clipper I would cash in right now


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If the secondary band develops there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth in the shaft zone.