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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

SCweather said:
Honestly, Ive yet to get a good enough explanation of why that look occurs so often of SC. It's hard to call it a warm nose cause the LP isn't even that close. It's just odd when I see that all the time. It's like the cold air crashes through middle GA and all of NC but is ALWAYS delayed with reaching South Carolina, atleast on model outputs. If anyone has a explanation for this, it would be greatly appreciated. Of course, I only notice this during and when we are tracking winter weather and a coastal storm is in play.
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I'm not going to go dig for it but someone on that other board said that unless cold air is locked in place there always seems to be an East GA warm area that sets up. The odd thing here is unlike that other storm last year, is while we don't have fresh cold, unless I'm just not remembering correctly it was much warmer before that storm.

Edit: I'm right. While we recently were warm, the days before this period will be colder than that time.
 
It wasn't less QPF unless the world is NC to you. TN, SC, the smokies, and N GA got more QPF. It decreased, but is still good in NC, went away in S LA, MS, and AL.
Here was 0z.
ecmwf_acc_snow_se_120.png
 
If there is a double jet on the Euro like it is on the NAM as Chris pointed out, there might be more precip in some areas than modeled.
 
SimeonNC said:
If there is a double jet on the Euro like it is on the NAM as Chris pointed out, there might be more precip in some areas than modeled.
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It definitely would be. We could get something like the December storm at a lower magnitude here with the precip coming from the west, then pivoting into the Carolinas and N GA as it moves away. Either that or an extended overrunning event.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not going to go dig for it but someone on that other board said that unless cold air is locked in place there always seems to be an East GA warm area that sets up. The odd thing here is unlike that other storm last year, is while we don't have fresh cold, unless I'm just not remembering correctly it was much warmer before that storm.

Edit: I'm right. While we recently were warm, the days before this period will be colder than that time.
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That would make sense. That storm last January was a big example but that was because the LP trended so far NW that it hurt everyone. Idk it's just weird and I see it on a lot of storms that we track. During regular arctic blast with no moisture, I guess it depends on which direction the front is coming from. For example, Friday night the colder air filtered through GA and SC before alot of NC.
 
SCweather said:
That would make sense. That storm last January was a big example but that was because the LP trended so far NW that it hurt everyone. Idk it's just weird and I see it on a lot of storms that we track. During regular arctic blast with no moisture, I guess it depends on which direction the front is coming from. For example, Friday night the colder air filtered through GA and SC before alot of NC.
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It was there even before the LP came NW. East GA especially was taking a while to switch over.
 
Euro looking good again. Still looks like a good 3 to 4 here.
 
Timing isn't the best for CAE; and ptype would be Rain/Snow before turning over to all snow. Precipitation rate and amounts would decide what our predominant precipitation type was in this scenario. The Euro has consistently showed rain/snow over to light snow when it has moisture here.

Remember, areas further to our North in NC are showing rain/snow on soundings; also dictated by precipitation rate.
 
Arcc said:
Maybe a smidge, but worse in the trend. Not a good run as the only hope would be a flizzard produced by the rapidly drying out band. I'd much rather see all of central and north AL decrease in totals and see the totals beefing up over south AL.
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Trend is not worse.
 
UKMET, not as good, inland for the Carolinas vs 00z:

ukmet_acc_precip_conus_102.png
 
Good trends today,espeacilly triad over to triangle. Euro almost got back to that 6 inch plus look from a couple days ago. Fact Kuchera did have a 6 + lollipop just a hair nw of SD and Brick.Looked good at H5 so maybe we can get lucky and real one in here.

Euro,icon and nam are good horses to be pulling the wagon on a set up like this one. Ukmet is a hoarse you want when your dealing with phased streams.
 
Arcc said:
Maybe a smidge, but worse in the trend. Not a good run as the only hope would be a flizzard produced by the rapidly drying out band. I'd much rather see all of central and north AL decrease in totals and see the totals beefing up over south AL.
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Snow did extend down to Florida this run though.
 
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