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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

SCweather said:
I got a feeling it'll change at 00z judging off the trends today, maybe not though.
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You'd think it would have looked better; as last night's 00z run was much wetter; even into your back yard. It was a step away at 12z; That's for sure. Without any member of the GEFS hinting, ruh roh.
 
Arcc said:
Maybe a smidge, but worse in the trend. Not a good run as the only hope would be a flizzard produced by the rapidly drying out band. I'd much rather see all of central and north AL decrease in totals and see the totals beefing up over south AL.
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Well this is a Clipper and with this axis setup I think it is about all we can get... Maybe we can add little bit more moisture and call it a win for what this is
 
Webberweather53 said:
While not as bad as the GFS, the UKMET showed a big western cutoff in QPF totals near or just east of 95 in the last event earlier this month which didn't exactly pan out...
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That's fine. I'm sure NC will do great. My area got some token flurries that weren't enough to stick, and UKMET pretty much showed that.
 
Shawn said:
You'd think it would have looked better; as last night's 00z run was much wetter; even into your back yard. It was a step away at 12z; That's for sure. Without any member of the GEFS hinting, ruh roh.
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It would seem that the GFS and it's essembles are bandwagons at this point with the lack of verification it's had lately. Hard to respect that model when it wants to jump on to the other models success at the last minute. But I understand what youre saying, the essembles are very important.
 
SCweather said:
It would seem that the GFS and it's essembles are bandwagons at this point with the lack of verification it's had lately. Hard to respect that model when it wants to jump on to the other models success at the last minute. But I understand what youre saying, the essembles are very important.
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The GFS was upgraded not too long ago, and it seems worse. The old GFS, at least we had everything figured out with it's problems. Now, its a head scratcher, sometimes. There is talk of a "new model" in 2019 to replace the GFS. From what I've seen of the FV3, it's more crap, and might likely be the same ole GFS on a new computer.
 
A moderate impact event is becoming probable for areas of central and eastern NC. While details are still largely unknown I think there's a very good chance that someone between the western piedmont and central coastal plain will end up with a nice moderate amount of snowfall out of this (2-5"/3-6"). The GFS and its underdispersive ensemble suite as usual are probably too flat/progressive with the longwave trough and we will likely end up with a solution that's closer to what the Euro, NAM, & ICON are showing.
 
Stormlover said:
huh? The deepfreeze hits right behind it.
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1 day in the 30s after
32c48f880243c785c79f93dfe17704df.jpg


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Ya the upcoming cold snap is as good as what the last one is but it's not anywhere near as long.

Edit: More like ongoing.
 
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