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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Much better
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Even better than 6z. Need a couple more good cycles from the NAM before I get excited. Need a little breathing room from what seems like the inevitable last minute bad trend from these meso models IMO
Tarheel1 said:
Temps, temps, temps! If this comes in Tuesday evening or even midnight , I promise you upstate will be at 45+ degrees when rain starts
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looking like 3-6'ish AM? And I agree. Hard to get that cold air over those mountains. By no means am I optimistic about this. But that simulates radar looks beautiful
 
Webberweather53 said:
2-5" seems like the right call in the central-western piedmont of NC atm, barring a nice coastal forms to sling moisture back inland, someone along or east of US highway 1 is going to get appreciably less and/or screwed over.
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Would love to be on the high end of that, but 2 inches would be great. RAH and the local TV mets are being conservative as always so they can increase totals as the storm unfolds.
 
So the nws in Huntsville has different criteria for winter weather watches and warnings than birmingham . That's interesting. I knew they were not universal but I figured those two offices we at least close to the same

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Webberweather53 said:
2-5" seems like the right call in the central-western piedmont of NC atm, barring a nice coastal forms to sling moisture back inland, someone along or east of US highway 1 is going to get appreciably less and/or screwed over.
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I guess it's my turn...
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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Anyone think snow totals across middle GA could be higher with the gulf tap?
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Well the December event while different setup somewhat ended up verifying higher moisture when gulf was tapped won't be anything like that cause it was a much more moist system to begin with but one could hope that could end up on the .10 to .20 increase for some in East AL and West GA but won't know for sure until some of the shorter models start getting in range
 
Here’s my NWS forecast:

Tuesday Night
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

They did up the percentage from 20 to 30.
 
Something tells me the appearance of the model output may not be the whole story. I went into the soundings on Pivotal and noticed that there is a snow sounding for 12 straight hours here. That is way too long for only 3 or 6 to 0 in the output.
Here's an example of hour 39 on the 12Z sounding vs the 12Z TT map. Pivoral looks drier btw.
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12Z TT Map
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Storm5 said:
You've been screaming it for days. Mother natures payback is brutal

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Or model output. Maybe the models will be nice to me today and give me MOISTURE. Hear these words models, MOISTURE! LOL. But if you read my post above, as I said, I feel the snow hole could be a lie.
 
metwannabe said:
I guess it's my turn...
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Brick Tamland said:
Would love to be on the high end of that, but 2 inches would be great. RAH and the local TV mets are being conservative as always so they can increase totals as the storm unfolds.
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Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
 
SD said:
And mine.... again

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Apparently you have expanded the snow shield, in all seriousness if that band is that solid and pretty intense back to the Triad I think it holds up to your area still could easily fizzled by the time it reaches me but that's just a odd looking snow gap, to me anyway. I think you'll be fine

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Now. NAM gives Chatham Co. NC 2 inches, and Wake 1. As I said yesterday (Capt. Obvious I know) its nearing the NAM's special time frame.
 
NAM is trying to suck me back in. Not ready to go all in just yet but a better 12z NAM run for the CAE areas for sure.


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That snow hole that ForsythSnow is referencing? That's even worse on the 3km NAM.

(Note, it may still be snowing in NC on the NAM at this period, not sure, just got up lmao)
 

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
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Well, I am pretty much right on US1. Maybe it'll get lucky up this way.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
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I guess it's time for the climatological favored areas of NC to get theirs, if it can hold together long enough to give me a solid inch I'll be happy I did get 4 with the last system so I'm trying not to be greedy.

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Brick Tamland said:
Well, I am pretty much right on US1. Maybe it'll get lucky up this way.
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Yeah we just need to hope the precipitation shield still has enough gas when it gets here and we're tucked inside the eastern edge of the good snows that will probably occur to our west so that the relative snow hole is located over the coastal plain instead of the eastern piedmont...
 
Sounds like FFC’s inch or less bet is looking good for now. How thrilling to receive a second possible accumulating snow after December’s dump.


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12Z ICON running. So far noticeable taller ridge out west compared to NAM and 06Z ICON through 18 hours..Also Further SW with energy.
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah vorticity stretching in the wake of the Apps is going to give areas towards the Triad and/or just west of Raleigh/US-1 a major boost. If trends continue it's possible a few isolated areas west and/or NW of Raleigh close in on 6", while 1-3" might be the best play atm for Raleigh & Fayetteville barring that NWP continue to trend favorably (as they have been in general) at the large-scale. Like I said, I am worried that areas along/east of US-1 (including Raleigh) could get a lot less than this figure or possibly screwed over as the precipitation shield is liable to maintain or weaken as it comes east. We're almost to the point now where we should start giving more credence to high resolution guidance like the NAM/RGEM, esp for those west of the Carolinas.
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Wondering why models are keying in on the 85 corridor. Is this what happened in 1984?
 
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