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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, do we have a storm threat or not?
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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Don,
This may not be a popular thing to say right now, but I hope you don't leave the forum. Whereas you do have a unique and controversial way of forecasting, I think it is more interesting when a forum has different views with robust discussion. (I don't at all mean fighting/name calling when I say robust discussion.)
pcbjr
Member
Yeah - this is not American
No, Brick, it is pretty close to dead now IMO. The GFS suite has been horrendous with this. The GFS cold bias, which I think is indirectly relevant, has been awful.
Jon
Member
Yep...it wasn't good. More in line with the 12z GFS with the energy being stung out and not digging until it's out to sea.
12z Models are all over the place with ridge height and energy orientation north of Washington state. Something to watch. I'd say this one is over but until the models agree on speed and look of this energy, I'm still watching. 12z NAM is interesting with this look
Canadian is way too north with the ridge
Optimism level at about 5% haha.
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pcbjr
Member
One thing that has attracted me to this bb is that almost all major posters have gotten along pretty well. Also, with it being new, there are no cliques to worry about. All are treated like equals. I hope it remains that way as that is quite refreshing. As time goes along, these things can change due to human nature. We need to be careful.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I haven't declared this dead, but I'm about ready to, if there's no improvement at 0z I think this threat is done. It's a shame but a model that is typically cold biased in the CMC being warm when it showed a storm earlier on is a bad sign.
pcbjr
Member
Appropriate for a Sunday I suppose - Amen Brother!
btw - Amen literally translates to "let it be"
BillT
Member
where does the arrogance on the other board come from please? they are mocking the people here over this thread and honestly the people with SENSE are posting here......while the other board is mostly clowns playing silly games.
packfan98
Moderator
I totally agree with Larry here. I like the fact that this board is focused on the weather and learning while still being lighthearted. Pessimism and sarcasm 24/7 wears thin very quickly. I would hate to see anyone leave who is genuine in their passion for weather. That works both ways though. Being open minded and willing to listen and learn will keep you young at heart. I was way wrong with some model analysis I gave yesterday. I have tried to learn from folks who have more experience than me. That will hopefully improve my take on things as time goes by.
When a potential threat starts to dominate a pattern discussion thread, I feel it's better to move it to it's own thread. Creating this thread wasn't a fail at all, regardless of the outcome.
I guess it's become normal and expected to threaten to ban your core members if they make a thread and it doesn't work out. We don't do that here.
I guess it's become normal and expected to threaten to ban your core members if they make a thread and it doesn't work out. We don't do that here.
I'm going to stay here on the forum, I'm just cooling off the steam. I'm not that kind of person to leave things behind and not to be hateful.
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Yep one thing we are trying to do here is promote discussion and learning. I think there is a good amount of useful info posted here daily. I guess if people want to post witty 1 liners and constant cynicism they have their place.
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whatalife
Moderator
There's still going to be a system just not the one we want...LOL!
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pcbjr
Member
I have no problem with funny banter at times and people inserting sarcasm into threads. The gifs are a great example. My problem lies when someone constantly post lines of negative drivel for the sake of if.
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I agree 100% with this. I think that once a storm threat starts dominating a thread regardless of how far out or how remote the chance the storm has to materialize, it is best it be in its own thread so as not to overly dominate a general pattern discussion thread. Also, hindsight is 20:20. It is easy to say after the fact or getting closer to the fact that there won't be a winter storm. But it was hard to know with high confidence when this thread was started that there wouldn't be a winter storm due largely to the GFS suite.
So, what is the big harm that this thread exists even if no SE winter storm materializes?
pcbjr
Member
above my pay-grade to elaborate on - but a lot of good info today - really
olhausen
Member
So the euro says if you want snow you better go to Green Bay or Maine. I think we are all just a little frustrated with the way this winter continues to play out. I feel I should probably step away from watching the weather models for a few days but it's doubtful that will happen before march.