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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

Pusshhh, lock this thread I don't care. Next time, I'll just be silent on what I see on the maps. Can't say anything w/o people flipping out.

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We're not flipping out at all, and you're more than welcome to express your opinion on something, we're just trying to clear up some confusion and discontinuities in your line of reasoning with well established meteorological principles.
 
I understand the need for some of the great discussion on this thread. Eric, Jon, Shane, Shawn, and Charlie have just unloaded a ton of good stuff to think on.

Don't we have a thread already started about how to look at the models and what to watch for?


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Pusshhh, lock this thread I don't care. Next time, I'll just be silent on what I see on the maps. Can't say anything w/o people flipping out.

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I don't think anyone is flipping out. It was just being stated that there is a close relationship between H5 and the sfc and you must have a better look at H5 to have a better look at the sfc.

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I understand the need for some of the great discussion on this thread. Eric, Jon, Shane, Shawn, and Charlie have just unloaded a ton of good stuff to think on.

Don't we have a thread already started about how to look at the models and what to watch for?


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...and there is some really good stuff from this AM in the Feb thread also!
 
Thanks for the kind words everyone. If anyone wants to really want to see what meteorology is all about, I definitely suggest looking over this free PDF of Holton's Fourth Edition Dynamic Meteorology textbook. Really goes into the finer details on the actual physics that link various meteorological phenomena with the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, and many of these concepts and equations are applicable to multitude of situations, and should help you understand some of the nuts and bolts of what is ingested into the global weather and climate models...
http://www.dca.ufcg.edu.br/DCA_download/An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology.pdf
 
Thanks for the kind words everyone. If anyone wants to really want to see what meteorology is all about, I definitely suggest looking over this free PDF of Holton's Fourth Edition Dynamic Meteorology textbook. Really goes into the finer details on the actual physics that link various meteorological phenomena with the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, and many of these concepts and equations are applicable to multitude of situations, and should help you understand some of the nuts and bolts of what is ingested into the global weather and climate models...
http://www.dca.ufcg.edu.br/DCA_download/An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology.pdf
You're doing great, Man! Thanks!!!
 
I understand we're y'all are coming from but y'all make it sound like you just have to look at H5. Winter weather is also based off of things at the surface. I analyze past runs, other modeling, wind currents, placement of highs and lows and other factors.

Also, just because I don't show H5 maps in my video's doesn't mean that I don't look at them at all, I do look at them.

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^
Half the time it can be thundering and lightening and dark at 2:00 PM and I can't predict whether or not it's gonna rain in 5 minutes ...
But one prediction I can make with 100% certainty - it ain't gonna snow in Gainesville FL this winter! H5 or otherwise ....
 
If I want to know whether or not there could be enough surface moisture to allow for significant precip in a nonmountainous area in the SE during winter, the direction of 500 mb flow will tell me a lot. For fun I will often look at 500 mb flow before looking at the surface. If I see, say, WNW 500 mb flow at Atlanta, I know right off the bat that the chances of the sfc map showing sig precip at that point in time at Atlanta is going to be extremely low. Even W flow is quite often too dry. However, if I see SW or even WSW flow, then I know there's a decent chance that significant precip is then or around then falling in the area. I've written about this in BB posts in the past. When I looked for major KATL wintry events by searching numerous old wx maps going back to the 1950's (when H5 maps were already available), I learned that I could just look at the H5 maps and search for WSW to SW flow (though with the rare closed H5 low I'm more cautious). If the flow is WSW to SW, I know to then look further at that period (sfc maps). If W to WNW flow, I then know I don't even need to look at the sfc.

If, say, there's WSW flow, I'll then need to look at the surface to see if there's favorable low level flow to allow for precip. If there's, say, a high to the W imparting a dry NW low level flow, then I can be pretty sure there's still going to be either no or very little precip. despite the rather favorable WSW 500 mb flow.
 
If I want to know whether or not there could be enough surface moisture to allow for significant precip in a nonmountainous area in the SE during winter, the direction of 500 mb flow will tell me a lot. For fun I will often look at 500 mb flow before looking at the surface. If I see, say, WNW 500 mb flow at Atlanta, I know right off the bat that the chances of the sfc map showing sig precip at that point in time at Atlanta is going to be extremely low. Even W flow is quite often too dry. However, if I see SW or even WSW flow, then I know there's a decent chance that significant precip is then or around then falling in the area. I've written about this in BB posts in the past. When I looked for major KATL wintry events by searching numerous old wx maps going back to the 1950's (when H5 maps were already available), I learned that I could just look at the H5 maps and search for WSW to SW flow (though with the rare closed H5 low I'm more cautious). If the flow is WSW to SW, I know to then look further at that period (sfc maps). If W to WNW flow, I then know I don't even need to look at the sfc.

If, say, there's WSW flow, I'll then need to look at the surface to see if there's favorable low level flow to allow for precip. If there's, say, a high to the W imparting a dry NW low level flow, then I can be pretty sure there's still going to be either no or very little precip. despite the rather favorable WSW 500 mb flow.
My clients in Atl all say that the good snows come from Alabama

otherwise - cold and dry typically ....
 
Sorry to ask again but is the threat dead for Thursday's snow for Tennessee?
 
I'm done with this whole forum right now. I'm not going to be wasting anymore time by reading who is putting out the best observations and or analyzes. We're here as a group and we should give all each other credit.

People view things differently and they view things that best fits them. Someone shouldn't bash someone for viewing something differently and what that person is looking for. When I look at these models I look at everything and not just the H5 maps. Also, someone should not try to control someone into what they are looking for. I said that there would be a storm during the 10th-13th and my prediction is coming true regardless of it not affecting the SE states.

How did I predict it? Based off of a lot of things and not just H5 maps. So, with these threads coming off topic and wasting time, I'm done for now on this whole forum.



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My clients in Atl all say that the good snows come from Alabama

otherwise - cold and dry typically ....

Phil,
Good ATL snows almost always have a Gulf low associated with them (along with WSW to SW H5 flow) albeit it is more often than not a weak or even very weak low. The 3/1993 Storm of the Century was the strongest Gulf low by far that gave ATL major snow. 3/1/2009 was a very rare exception of a bowling ball upper low without an attendant Gulf low. Actually, I haven't found another major ATL snow from a pure bowling ball!
The snow will almost always move in from AL but the main moisture source is nearly always Gulf moisture.
 
Phil,
Good ATL snows almost always have a Gulf low associated with them (along with WSW to SW H5 flow) albeit it is more often than not a weak or even very weak low. The 3/1993 Storm of the Century was the strongest Gulf low by far that gave ATL major snow. 3/1/2009 was a very rare exception of a bowling ball upper low without an attendant Gulf low. Actually, I haven't found another major ATL snow from a pure bowling ball!
The snow will almost always move in from AL but the main moisture source is nearly always Gukf moisture.
Yup! In early January we had a case in Tallahasse and I had folks in from Atl to testify; all the models were showing them getting crushed. Those folks are not weather people. I was concerned about them driving back Friday night. They were too - b/c "it's coming from Alabama" ... Sometimes it makes sense to go with history, I suppose!
 
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