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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

GaWx said:
Is CAD an exception to the idea of H5 dominating the sfc? I don't know. Any thoughts?
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You would still need confluence in the NE but the southward expansion of the sfc ridge might be a case of H5 and sfc not being 100% aligned

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
So, tbh, I think this thread should be locked or deleted and start over a fresh thread titled, "Model Discussion for 2/9-2/10" since this thread went into the trash bags lol. To start the new thread, that's up to the admins.

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I think it'll be OK to let things ride in this thread. There are good pieces of info in here and to see things fail is just another learning experience

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SD said:
I think it'll be OK to let things ride in this thread. There are good pieces of info in here and to see things fail is just another learning experience

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Yeah, what happened the last several pages was just... but aside from that, this treat sure does look dead now for us all. We either will get another storm or not at this point. Something feels missing in the wintry pattern. It has been too warm for something to not happen before March 15th.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
So, tbh, I think this thread should be locked or deleted and start over a fresh thread titled, "Model Discussion for 2/9-2/10" since this thread went into the trash bags lol. To start the new thread, that's up to the admins.

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I changed the title

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Oh another thing that works from the bottom up. Most of y'all won't know what I'm referring to.

Tunnel-week-3.jpg
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
Good ATL snows almost always have a Gulf low associated with them (along with WSW to SW H5 flow) albeit it is more often than not a weak or even very weak low. The 3/1993 Storm of the Century was the strongest Gulf low by far that gave ATL major snow. 3/1/2009 was a very rare exception of a bowling ball upper low without an attendant Gulf low. Actually, I haven't found another major ATL snow from a pure bowling ball!
The snow will almost always move in from AL but the main moisture source is nearly always Gulf moisture.
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Yea those are also relatively rare in NC, although I'm pretty confident this storm in January 31-February 1 1948 was largely induced a bowling ball ULL that dropped upwards of nearly 20" of snow in Nash County, NC. The surface low was particularly weak off the NC, at least too weak by itself to produce that much snow.
January 31-February 1 1948 NC Snow map.png
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Webberweather53 said:
Yea those are also relatively rare in NC, although I'm pretty confident this storm in January 31-February 1 1948 was largely induced a bowling ball ULL that dropped upwards of nearly 20" of snow in Nash County, NC. The surface low was particularly weak off the NC, at least too weak by itself to produce that much snow.
View attachment 23
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These maps you post make me consistently want snow. That's actually a pretty crappy look overall. Talk about making the next from a bad look

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WOW, I just woke up. Feels lke I read about 5 pages of bitching lol jk,. Carry on
 
SD said:
These maps you post make me consistently want snow. That's actually a pretty crappy look overall. Talk about making the next from a bad look

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Me too, seeing storms like this make me realize just how crappy the last several years have been overall (aside from 2013-14). It actually wasn't a great look at all, but the fact that there was so much upper level divergence and diffluence on the front side of the ULL and the coastal low was practically stationary just offshore for 24-30 hours led to the unusually high amounts... Yea, I'm only scratching the surface with some of these maps I've posted here, there's a lot more where these came from.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Me too, seeing storms like this make me realize just how crappy the last several years have been overall (aside from 2013-14). It actually wasn't a great look at all, but the fact that there was so much upper level divergence and diffluence on the front side of the ULL and the coastal low was practically stationary just offshore for 24-30 hours led to the unusually high amounts... Yea, I'm only scratching the surface with some of these maps I've posted here, there's a lot more where these came from.
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Do you want a thread or to post them on the blog? I love seeing them

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So does anyone have a time period that they are watching/is of interest? I want to start planning my disappointments in advance. Great learning today!
 
Roswellian said:
So does anyone have a time period that they are watching/is of interest? I want to start planning my disappointments in advance. Great learning today!
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No not right now I'd look toward the last week of the month unless something can sneak through before hand

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18z GEFS looked similar to 12z on the mean. Here's the most significant (and positive) panel I could find at hr 78. Pretty good shift south with the low pressure for that one panel.
sfcwind_mslp.conus.png
 
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