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Pattern Microwave March

tennessee storm said:
the euro has had a pretty bad year lately... to be honest... it needs to be sued.... anybody know where I can get a good attorney?... lol
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Yes, but not as bad as the GFS due to its even worse cold bias. But yes, the Euro has been bad. Look at how it suddenly got quite cold in the SE in the 6-10 yesterday at 12Z after a mild run prior to it. It then warmed overall in today's 0Z with the only real cold following a storm moving up to the NE. I'd love to see the cold come back like it had on yesterday's 12Z but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Meanwhile in the lol category, the GFS retains its common cold as it has a cold 11-15 on the 6Z, too.
 
pcbjr said:
I see what you are saying - but - and this is a very sincere question (not sarcastic or rhetorical in any way) - What would be the source of blocking? The NAO is forecasted to go + and I am not seeing any sustained 50/50 low. What am I missing? Thanks! Phil
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It's more like a west based block, won't show up entirely on standard -NAO teleconnection graphs

499145d6d1c683d8bddd0f4d853b7af3.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just to remind you much this winter sucked (yet again), check out these back-to-back beauties on this date in March 1912.
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View attachment 312
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Webb - You need to post some of those for North FL - although you may have to study tree rings from the last ice age 10,000 years ago to compose a map or two like those ... LOL

Interesting though - we do get some occasionally, especially up this far north.

Here's some info just for kicks:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida
 
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GaWx said:
Yes, but not as bad as the GFS due to its even worse cold bias. But yes, the Euro has been bad. Look at how it suddenly got quite cold in the SE in the 6-10 yesterday at 12Z after a mild run prior to it. It then warmed overall in today's 0Z with the only real cold following a storm moving up to the NE. I'd love to see the cold come back like it had on yesterday's 12Z but I wouldn't hold my breath.

Meanwhile in the lol category, the GFS retains its common cold as it has a cold 11-15 on the 6Z, too.
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Yep, keeps the same look as 6Z. The Euro should be fun to watch if it does what it did lat couple of runs.
 
The euro finally joins the GFS/HWRF in blowing up Enawo into a category 4-5 hurricane in a little over 48 hours. This would be a huge disaster for northern Madagascar.
ecmwf_mslpa_swio_10.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Something worth keeping in the back of your mind... The cool 2m temperature bias is not an issue that has exclusively affected the GFS this winter.
View attachment 320
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Webberweather53 said:
Something worth keeping in the back of your mind... The cool 2m temperature bias is not an issue that has exclusively affected the GFS this winter.
View attachment 320
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Indeed, and the EPS would show something similar though the map for day 10's GFS/GEFS cold bias is quite a bit worse than this! Is this horrible cold bias this winter being caused by the excessive Indonesian convection? If so, why can't models handle it? Long ago pcbjr mentioned the Pacific.

These cold biases start at hour 6 and grow every 6 hours.

By the way, the 12Z Euro is back to being very warm in the 6-10 lol.

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GaWx said:
Indeed, and the EPS would show something similar though the map for day 10's GFS/GEFS cold bias is quite a bit worse than this! Is this horrible cold bias this winter being caused by the excessive Indonesian convection? If so, why can't models handle it?

By the way, the 12Z Euro is back to being very warm in the 6-10 lol.
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I'm blaming it on the Russians ----------- just being sarcastic (but not to you!) :p
 
For once I would like to see a hot bias and be surprised by cold. Or how about they remove the bias script altogether.
 
Roswellian said:
how about they remove the bias script altogether
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my entire being was just summed up in one short idiom (way outside of weather) - thanks! been looking for the phrase for years! thanks!!!!! it goes into the book of "keeps"!
 
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