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Pattern Microwave March

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LOL
 
Ok, good news for the GFS 11-15: its cold has been cured for now as it got rid of its 11-15 day cold. I wonder if the Good Doctor aka the Euro had a hand in this treatment
 
MBell said:
I haven't really been following things this season..how have the ski resorts in NC/TN been so far this year?
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You might want to go to the Sierra Nevada mountains for skiing. I heard a ski resort will stay open till summer.

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Even the cold biased main models all look like a microwave much of the next 10 days.
 
GaWx said:
Regarding that brilliant pro met who I mentioned as having done so well this winter by significantly warming the model consensus as a result of excessive Indonesian convection, he was as I said still going a little warmer than normal for the SE US for 3/6-10, a period when the models had been quite cold until the not as cold 12Z/18Z consensus today.

Here is what he has for KATL maxes and mins as of yesterday's forecast in the face of quite cold models:

3/6: 63/47
3/7: 66/46
3/8: 62/42
3/9: 63/43
3/10: 67/47

These are all near to a little warmer than normal, nothing like the cold models have! I mean sone of the runs have had hard freezes there. His coldest is 42 or some 15-20 warmer than a good number of the recent GFS runs! That takes both guts and someone very much in tune with the cold model biases. I plan to post again about this near 3/10 to see how well he verifies.
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See the quoted post from 8 days ago showing a mild forecast for KATL for 3/6-10 even when models had been very cold. If anything, even this mild forecast is looking to verify too cool! Example: the 3/7 low is now forecast to be in the mid 50's or about 10 degrees warmer than the 46 forecasted 8 days ago!


3/6: 63/47
3/7: 66/46
3/8: 62/42
3/9: 63/43
3/10: 67/47
 
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pcbjr said:
Because it's Lent now and we have to atone ... LOL
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Atone? Atone? I've been good. Occasionally real good :) I've been good all my life, with some exceptions...like the time I ....but I digress.....I've live thru sleetless winters....I've live thru snowless winters...over and over...and still I've been somewhat good. But now But Now, I'm having to live thru winterless winters. I haven't been on a good sled ride since 05! And I've been better than some, for some of the time...When will it End????? Summer hates me! Spring and fall are a mashup of something not quite summer, and now winter has disappeared....And I've been Good on rare occasions..Why me!!! Whyyyy..whyyyy
Shoot... I thought I'd feel better, but I don't.....
 
dsaur said:
Atone? Atone? I've been good. Occasionally real good :) I've been good all my life, with some exceptions...like the time I ....but I digress.....I've live thru sleetless winters....I've live thru snowless winters...over and over...and still I've been somewhat good. But now But Now, I'm having to live thru winterless winters. I haven't been on a good sled ride since 05! And I've been better than some, for some of the time...When will it End????? Summer hates me! Spring and fall are a mashup of something not quite summer, and now winter has disappeared....And I've been Good on rare occasions..Why me!!! Whyyyy..whyyyy
Shoot... I thought I'd feel better, but I don't.....
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Paging Jon - We have someone in the store that needs help here ... LOL ;)
 
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system late next weekend needs to be watched for a severe threat for the upper south midsouth region... especially... if todays 12zgfs is correct... nice negative tilted broad based trough moving out of the central plains... nice jet streak to boot...
 
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The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.

Even this colder run is not cold overall in the 6-10 day period for most of the SE outside of much of NC.
 
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.
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I say it keeps it tonight, and reverts back tomorrow afternoon, but it is interesting to see it flipping around. Doubt the snow will happen though.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.

Even this colder run is not cold overall in the 6-10 day period for most of the SE outside of much of NC.
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What is "cold"; what is "snow"? o_O
 
pcbjr said:
What is "cold"; what is "snow"? o_O
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"Cold" is the beautiful radiational cooling generated 36 low that Gainesville had the pleasure of experiencing yesterday morning. Man, y'all are good.
 
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