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Pattern Microwave March

Webberweather53 said:
Yep very true the central piedmont battle zone is probably going to be sharp again unless something changes... Might as well take a huge chance w/ a miller A bomb and risk mixing that way esp when we know even this far out it's almost inevitable in RDU at some pt. Plus it's mid-March, we should consider ourselves very fortunate we're even in this position to begin w/ and winter is nearly over, so why not go for the Hail Mary?
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We got enough of a mess in January I fully support a hail mary. I want to see the big totals and I don't really care where in NC they are.
 
The 0z GFS does plaster the MA/NE after it just missed doing so on Mar. 14-15. Throws a little snow into the southeast before doing so, even gets into Georgia but it's not much...
 
The CMC is pretty good for the upper south. (and also the wave stalls, cranks up in the gulf, and phases with that second Alberta clipper and bombs out in the MA/NE)
 
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Everyone just take a moment and think about what would happen if the southern stream piece over the NE GOM was just a hair slower on this CMC run. #weenie
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If the GFS is right next week, I made the correct judgement in having my dad hold off on shutting off the heat for now.
 
This run was to close for comfort but still ends up being a good snowfall for now.
Even if the models are showing this the night before I'll be worried as I've seen to many cold rains that were supposed to be 3-5 inches of snow. These close calls usually go the wrong way but we shall see.
It's definitely fun to have something to track.

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Webberweather53 said:
Everyone just take a moment and think about what would happen if the southern stream piece over the NE GOM was just a hair slower on this CMC run. #weenie
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Bombs away with stupid stupid clown maps and a lot of overreaction


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Storm5 said:
Bombs away with stupid stupid clown maps and a lot of overreaction


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Ugh, I can't deal w/ this crap again lol...
The professional side of me says don't pay any attention to this & move along, but the weenie part of me says oh look at this, inside day 5-6 and we almost triple phased... Ugh.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ugh, I can't deal w/ this crap again lol...
The professional side of me says don't pay any attention to this & move along, but the weenie part of me says oh look at this, inside day 5-6 and we almost triple phased... Ugh.
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Unmet looks close as well but it looks like it would be a late phase . Hard to pay too much attention to the CMC for many reasons . However there have been a few gefs members with similar setups . Looping the CMC again and damn it was close . Like you said , slow down the southern vort and holy hell


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Storm5 said:
Unmet looks close as well but it looks like it would be a late phase . Hard to pay too much attention to the CMC for many reasons . However there have been a few gefs members with similar setups . Looping the CMC again and damn it was close . Like you said , slow down the southern vort and holy hell


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Yeah, I definitely agree... We were only a few hours away from getting an absolute monster on the eastern seaboard on day 6...
 
Anyone have the gefs members out yet, can't pull up right now
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Eric isn't it further south again?? Now showing some light snow in the Northern Midlands of South Carolina?
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Yeah it was a little further south but once again the storm itself slowed down and the overall orientation of the s/w trough was less positive and there was more interaction w/ the northern branch of the jet as this rounded the southern periphery of the SE Canada vortex
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it was a little further south but once again the storm itself slowed down and the overall orientation of the s/w trough was less positive and there was more interaction w/ the northern branch of the jet as this rounded the southern periphery of the SE Canada vortex
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Eric do you think us here in Columbia could see some light snow from this?? what is your idea for Columbia SC?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Eric do you think us here in Columbia could see some light snow from this?? what is your idea for Columbia SC?
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The midlands of SC are on the southern fringe of where I'd consider there being the potential of any legitimate threat for wintry precipitation. For now, it's unlikely-very unlikely that anything would fall but that could change the next day or two
 
Thanks for the Tennessee map. Northern Tennessee/Southern Kentucky seems to be in a pretty good spot for the most part. I do worry that models have been overly strong with HP moving down from Canada all season long.
 
While that's a legitimate concern, we're now getting inside day 3-4 and the models are becoming increasingly bullish with the surface high diving out of Canada and rightfully so because the airmass associated with it is near record breaking strength for march. The temperatures at 850mb in north-central Canada are the coldest we've observed since at least the late 1950s in March...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The midlands of SC are on the southern fringe of where I'd consider there being the potential of any legitimate threat for wintry precipitation. For now, it's unlikely-very unlikely that anything would fall but that could change the next day or two
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I am with Eric here. Very very low chance of anyone South of Rock Hill seeing Wintry weather so far. CAE proper is at a very low chance.. and keep in mind, the best scenario is some flurries right now at best. Even that is pushing it.

This might not even work out for Charlotte (anything substantial) when all is said and done. You'd want better cold (which would likely end up making ip/zr around here) and also would want the system to be further South and weaker, by quite a bit more. It's just not climo for us here. Mid Feb would be a different story.
 
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Shawn said:
I am with Eric here. Very very low chance of anyone South of Rock Hill seeing Wintry weather so far. CAE proper is at a very low chance.. and keep in mind, the best scenario is some flurries right now at best. Even that is pushing it.

This might not even work out for Charlotte (anything substantial) when all is said and done. You'd want better cold (which would likely end up making ip/zr around here) and also would want the system to be further South and weaker, by quite a bit more. It's just not climo for us here. Mid Feb would be a different story.
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You think elevations above 3,000' in GA could get some flurries out of this ?
 
Wake up! Wake up! 6z a little South of 0z GFS ! NC crush job!!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
You think elevations above 3,000' in GA could get some flurries out of this ?
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If you take the CMC, you can stay put and get more than flurries, and I hope it is right! Unlikely, but why not hope for it? The GFS is going to lose this one with its northern low track I feel, the MA gets nothing, and there is another gradient storm again.
 
06 GFS clown map is very deceiving, haven't checked the soundings put a good portion of that is either sleep freezing rain four NC I'm talking about

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ForsythSnow said:
Wow indeed. It's a completely new solution too, so I wouldn't bet on it unless it shows up in future runs, but that sure will freeze all the plants that started growing early.
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To be fair many ensembles have shown the same solution


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metwannabe said:
06 GFS clown map is very deceiving, haven't checked the soundings put a good portion of that is either sleep freezing rain four NC I'm talking about

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I just checked bufkit for RDU....1.1" liquid alll snow, ends as a bit of sleet. Shocked me considering some graphic output..

Edit: whoops looking at the 00z...lets load up the 06z.
 
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