whatalife
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Pattern Microwave March
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I wouldn't be surprised if it was overdoing it however. The Euro loved to over exaggerate pressures on storms last year from what I could remember, but I could be wrong.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm less doubtful given that it's only 72-96 HR out, the Euro has actually been trending significantly upward w/ 95S's intensity, and the HWRF and GFS are considerably more aggressive...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's crazy how similar this tornado a few days ago was to 1925's tri-state tornado...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Crazy to think the exact same areas affected by this tornado on Tue night are getting accumulating snow right now. Don't you just love March...
Do yourself a favor and don't even look at the Control Run. It changes so much from run to run it's literally like flipping a coin.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Tropical Cyclone Enawo has formed in the southwestern Indian Ocean and Meteo France expects this storm to become a major hurricane in less than 3 days as it comes precariously close to Madagascar.
The model differences at day 10...lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Something to keep in the back of your mind this upcoming hurricane season... The microphysics within the GFS often result in over-zealous and unrealistic forecasts of strong TCs... The model usually has a better handle on weak-moderate TCs
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah, I remember the GFS had Matthew getting down below 900 several times, which never happened. Pressure is a really difficult thing to predict is what I got out of that storm. The Euro is likely going to be closer though.
pcbjr
Member
Hope "springs" eternal (pun intended)
Let me guess, a 10 day snowstorm or super cold outbreak!? It's finally caught whatever sickness the GFS has had!
Rain with 850's at -6 degrees Celsius. The epitome of our winter. Can't catch a break.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Although overdone, the GFS was the only global model that correctly and consistently predicted Matthew's prolonged period of RI in the extreme southern Caribbean...
pcbjr
Member
That would be about 4º to 6º above freezing at the surface - can't win for losing this year ...
WeatherWatch
Member
I just looked at it, rain to snow, surface temps. are chilly, maybe a rain/snow mix as the colder air filters in. I'd rather take that than a lousy warm nose, ruining the snow chances.
pcbjr
Member
What height and what hour has you interested - I'm on a conference call and can look but can't "search" ....
What height and what hour has you interested - I'm on a conference call and can look but can't "search" ....
The run is MUCH colder than the prior one for the E US overall for 3/9-12. I'm not talking about a storm.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
So as the GFS backs way off on the cold (although I haven't looked at it closely lately), the Euro leaps on board.
K.
I remember watching from afar with Matthew. It looked like it wasn't going to affect the East Coast much but suddenly started trending toward doing just that on Monday before the hurricane came on that weekend. The reason I remember it well is because I traveled to one of the areas that was hit pretty hard late in the spring (St. Augustine, FL) because of the football games that were delayed due to it, and because I remember watching a football game that was an absolute mess due to the downpour.
K.
I remember watching from afar with Matthew. It looked like it wasn't going to affect the East Coast much but suddenly started trending toward doing just that on Monday before the hurricane came on that weekend. The reason I remember it well is because I traveled to one of the areas that was hit pretty hard late in the spring (St. Augustine, FL) because of the football games that were delayed due to it, and because I remember watching a football game that was an absolute mess due to the downpour.