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Pattern Microwave March

When are we going to go back to a warm pattern ? I don't have any 70's in the forecast for the next 10 days ! What's going on ?
 
olhausen said:
By Monday I'm forecasted to be at 66 and Tuesday 67 which is over 10 degrees above my average.
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I'm forecast to be several degrees above average next week but i'm used to being like 10-20 above average, so it's weird only being a few degrees above average. Also, we may have 3 freezes in a row the next 3 nights. I can't remember the last time that happened. I wonder if March has any chance of being colder than Feb ?
 
Following up on some of the foregoing, the stars are not aligned in the right direction for sustained (or much) March cold (but given this winter, when have they been aligned right?).

4indices.png
 
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ok you guys got me going out to tropical tidbits. been doing it about a week or so, and they really should not be able to get away with what they show on hour gfs 384. now i know why some people are so angry. ;-)
 
NGTim said:
ok you guys got me going out to tropical tidbits. been doing it about a week or so, and they really should not be able to get away with what they show on hour gfs 384. now i know why some people are so angry. ;-)
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Keep it at about 240 or so and you'll be fine! ;)
Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal are two great resources - so long as you stay within the truncation realm!
 
pcbjr said:
Keep it at about 240 or so and you'll be fine! ;)
Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal are two great resources - so long as you stay within the truncation realm!
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I thought truncation was at 192 for the GFS?
 
GaStorm said:
I thought truncation was at 192 for the GFS?
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It used to be 2 years ago but with the T1534 GFS upgrade in 2015 the higher resolution was extended from 8 days (192hr) to 10 days(240hr). So when I say truncation personally I'm talking about 241hr+ because obviously 13km to 35km is a huge res drop and it's very noticeable on the output if you loop it on tropicaltidbits

- Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the
forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian
T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from
192 hours to 240 hours

- Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of
the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian
T574 (~35 km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384
hours

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html
 
Jon said:
It used to be 2 years ago but with the T1534 GFS upgrade in 2015 the higher resolution was extended from 8 days (192hr) to 10 days(240hr). So when I say truncation personally I'm talking about 241hr+ because obviously 13km to 35km is a huge res drop and it's very noticeable on the output if you loop it on tropicaltidbits

- Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the
forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian
T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from
192 hours to 240 hours

- Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of
the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian
T574 (~35 km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384
hours

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html
Click to expand...
Thanks for the explanation!
 
Jon said:
It used to be 2 years ago but with the T1534 GFS upgrade in 2015 the higher resolution was extended from 8 days (192hr) to 10 days(240hr). So when I say truncation personally I'm talking about 241hr+ because obviously 13km to 35km is a huge res drop and it's very noticeable on the output if you loop it on tropicaltidbits

- Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the
forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian
T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from
192 hours to 240 hours

- Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of
the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian
T574 (~35 km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384
hours

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html
Click to expand...
Classic distinction between a lawyer's and a scientist's explanation here! Good job, Jon!
 
Interesting look on the 12z EPS during the 14th/15th, the system is more of a Miller A track rather than a Miller B track. I can see that the GFS OP has been trying to lean toward the EPS on each of it's runs lately for that time period.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Interesting look on the 12z EPS during the 14th/15th, the system is more of a Miller A track rather than a Miller B track. I can see that the GFS OP has been trying to lean toward the EPS on each of it's runs lately for that time period.
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Do you mean the EPS control? I'm not seeing anything on the means hinting towards a miller A snowstorm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Do you mean the EPS control? I'm not seeing anything on the means hinting towards a miller A snowstorm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yes, I meant the EPS control. It did have that system on a Miller B track on it's 0z run. The 12z EPS control does actually have snow for northern parts of NC on the 15th but as we know, that will all change. You know what's also interesting, the Farmers Almanac is saying there will be snow inland during March, 18th/19th for GA and the Carolina's.
 
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