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Pattern Microwave March

Ground temps don't bother me at all. Would it be ideal for ground temps to be in the 20s? Sure. But hey, if we can get frost, like we had the other day, surely we can get snow to accumulate if it comes down hard and temps are below freezing. Other people can light their hair on fire about ground temps if they want, but I'm not going to lose one second of sleep over it. The inevitable warm nose on the other hand.... :yikes:
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah it was a North of the GFS . Hopefully that's not a trend and is just the NAM being stupid at hour 84


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Yeah, not sure if it's the NAM being a ------ or if this is significant. For what it's worth, this is first model that I've seen actually trend faster/further N with the SE Canada inside day 3. If the GFS & ECMWF begin to follow suit and this continues for the next day or so, then I'll pay attention...
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah it was a North of the GFS . Hopefully that's not a trend and is just the NAM being stupid at hour 84


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I don't use the NAM for track, that's just foolishness ! But I will take its 850s as gospel, a day out!
 
It snowed a solid foot here in March 2014 and 6.5 inches of sleet in March of 2013. We are not as far south as most on here but far enough so it still does happen.
On another note if you want to take sun angle out of the equation get 6 inches of sleet. Was on the ground forever. Schools closed for a solid week for first time since 1985.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, not sure if it's the NAM being a ------ or if this is significant. For what it's worth, this is first model that I've seen actually trend faster/further N with the SE Canada inside day 3. If the GFS & ECMWF begin to follow suit and this continues for the next day or so, then I'll pay attention...
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Is this a problem even if we get a weaker wave?
 
NWTNWX said:
It snowed a solid foot here in March 2014 and 6.5 inches of sleet in March of 2013. We are not as far south as most on here but far enough so it still does happen.
On another note if you want to take sun angle out of the equation get 6 inches of sleet. Was on the ground forever. Schools closed for a solid week for first time since 1985.
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Maybe you have your years mixed up or maybe you are right, but Jackson, TN only had a trace of snow/sleet in March 2013. How far are you from there ? Also, Clarksville, TN had no snow/ice in March 2013.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Maybe you have your years mixed up or maybe you are right, but Jackson, TN only had a trace of snow/sleet in March 2013. How far are you from there ? Also, Clarksville, TN had no snow/ice in March 2013.
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Yes. For some reason I started off on the wrong year and ran with it. It was 2015 and 2014 but Jackson is only 40 miles away and they did not do well at all with the sleet storm.
 
The position and strength of the SE Canada vortex didn't change much on this run vs 0z, if not it's slightly weaker & further N by a hair, and the overall flow is flatter. First time we've seen this short-medium range trend of deeper SE CAN vortex, steepening flow & slowing s/w come to a halt...
 
Energy is digging way early at 93 hours...may not be as suppressed as the 18z, could end up being another VA/NC border north hit.
 
Wunderground history sometimes isn't accurate. Mistakes will get fixed by them but I remember my dad told me that we actually saw some snow for quite a while in January 2000 (Carolina Crusher) and for a period of time, this was not showing on Wunderground on the official station. This was corrected though.
 
Huge differences here in s/w orientation, and amplitude this run vs 18z, probably going to end up w/ a bigger storm further east...

Old run
gfs_z500_vort_us_18.png

New run

gfs_z500_vort_us_17.png
 
Kentucky getting crushed this run northern tenn looks like ZR though I have a hard time buying ZR


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This still produces winter weather in the northern half of TN but it's a little too far north of a tick for my liking in those parts...

Edit: ehhhhh now that I've compared it's not a huge difference. It definitely looks like the south trend has stopped though.
 
Looks like RDU north may do OK, of course Wake County would be a lot of mixing...the snow map would look decent. Big winner here is just north of Wake 10-12" it appears.
 
North half of Tennessee/Kentucky/Northern NC still do well but I'd be a little uncomfortable about the south trend stopping now with this winter's trends.
 
733bc0bb77297f284b2a39f802bf04d6.jpg



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Jon said:
Looks like RDU north may do OK, of course Wake County would be a lot of mixing...the snow map would look decent. Big winner here is just north of Wake 10-12" it appears.
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A lot of that is probably sleet and freezing rain in northern Wake, realistically probably more like 4-7" except near VA border where it's mostly snow. Distribution reminiscent of Feb 1989 definitely a legitimate possibility
 
Jon said:
VA border crush job...not sure we want it amping that early here for RDU, need a slower and/or weaker vort
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The last run had a weaker vort (as did the ECMWF) and RDU still had mixing issues, but the GFS is atrocious even w/ hybrid CAD so take it w/ grain of salt, although any WAA this time of the year sucks... If we really want a predominant SN p type we either need to thread the needle and risk it all on a miller A bomb or get the northern fringe of a modest/light overrunning event
 
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Webberweather53 said:
A lot of that is probably sleet and freezing rain in northern Wake, realistically probably more like 4-7" except near VA border where it's mostly snow. Distribution reminiscent of Feb 1989 definitely a legitimate possibility
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I agree...any totals south of the border counties are really suspect with that low track/vort amplitude. This is where Kuchera fails....19" in south person/N Durham counties. But hey, Roxboro always jackpots.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
North half of Tennessee/Kentucky/Northern NC still do well but I'd be a little uncomfortable about the south trend stopping now with this winter's trends.
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This isn't gonna keep coming south. Gonna see a little bouncing around for the next few days . But there is no shot for miss ala and GA except for MAYBE NE Georgia mountains but that's doubtful at this point


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Storm5 said:
This isn't gonna keep coming south. Gonna see a little bouncing around for the next few days . But there is no shot for miss ala and GA except for MAYBE NE Georgia mountains but that's doubtful at this point


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I know I have no shot and can't go chase as I'm not alone, I'm just rooting for our folks in the upper south to actually get to see a winter storm. I declared my shot at seeing anything over at the end of February...
 
Jon said:
I agree...any totals south of the border counties are really suspect with that low track/vort amplitude. This is where Kuchera fails....19" in south person/N Durham counties. But hey, Roxboro always jackpots.
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Yep very true the central piedmont battle zone is probably going to be sharp again unless something changes... Might as well take a huge chance w/ a miller A bomb and risk mixing that way esp when we know even this far out it's almost inevitable in RDU at some pt. Plus it's mid-March, we should consider ourselves very fortunate we're even in this position to begin w/ and winter is nearly over, so why not go for the Hail Mary?
 
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00z CMC is south nice little snow for most of Tennessee and Kentucky . Let's see where it goes


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