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Pattern Microwave March

GaWx said:
"Cold" is the beautiful radiational cooling generated 36 low that Gainesville had the pleasure of experiencing yesterday morning. Man, y'all are good.
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You got it Man! And what a beautiful day today - nice NE wind, 73º, partly cloudy (so the Irish skin can take it!!) and other than Vandy - a lovely weekend - just wondering if I'll need another 5:00 AM get-out-and-walk light sweatshirt after this AM until after next Thanksgiving though (guess I could crank the A/C down in July an pretend --- LOL) ;)
 
Even though we're getting very late in the season, this z500 at day 5 is actually not bad at all... Too bad it's not February or early March.
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Doc has a major SN 3/12 in NC. Even though it may be fun to see especially for NC folks, take it with a humongous grain as no other model has anything close to this and even the Doc, itself, has been flipping wildly from one run to the next in addition to being cold biased overall. Remember that this is 7 days out, which makes the chances of this verifying closely on a wildly volatile model with a solid cold bias low at best. I lean toward the Euro reverting right back to warmer tonight. We'll see.

Even this colder run is not cold overall in the 6-10 day period for most of the SE outside of much of NC.
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With the blocking scheme showing up I guess anything can be possible, I'm just paying attention to the where that vortex swings to our NE and whether or not a wave actually forms. The fact that we're seeing snow on Day 7 in NC on the Euro is outright shocking to me...first DCA to Maine with 20-50", now an NC hit...it sees something on the east coast -- where is the question. Unfortunately I'm betting against NC here.
 
Jon said:
With the blocking scheme showing up I guess anything can be possible, I'm just paying attention to the where that vortex swings to our NE and whether or not a wave actually forms. The fact that we're seeing snow on Day 7 in NC on the Euro is outright shocking to me...first DCA to Maine with 20-50", now an NC hit...it sees something on the east coast -- where is the question. Unfortunately I'm betting against NC here.
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... and Gainesville, I take it ... LOL (and good luck - you all deserve at least one real good one this year!) ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even though we're getting very late in the season, this z500 at day 5 is actually not bad at all... Too bad it's not February or early March.
View attachment 325
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Hmm....RDU >1" March snowfalls since 1947 n=13

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Webberweather53 said:
Even though we're getting very late in the season, this z500 at day 5 is actually not bad at all... Too bad it's not February or early March.
View attachment 325
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Indeed, but even at this hour (120), I know you must realize it is significantly different from its fun just 12 hours ago as well as the 12Z GFS/CMC and the 0Z EPS mean. If the Euro had been a warm biased model this winter, this might have been enough to get me hopeful for NC. But with it being cold biased and so much colder with the piece of PV at hour 120 being 500 miles SE of both its 0Z Euro and 12Z GFS positions, I'm pretty confident it is just a tease with the PV piece likely reverting a good bit back NW on tonight's run. We'll see.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol 12z EPs.... skewed by two big members
2858baaabc08a6a5cb7aa4306b965ae2.jpg



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Yeah, not surpringly, the 12Z EPS mean for the 6-10 went much colder in the E US vs the 0Z EPS mean. But it is also much colder than the 12Z GEFS/GEPS and is cold biased this winter.
 
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