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Pattern Microwave March

pcbjr said:
I've got a studied "feeling" about the 16th - 17th down here in Hogtown - and that could play wonders further north - stay tuned ....
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1. OK, I'll be following.

2. Meanwhile, I had a great walk just now in the beautiful dry 60's with a nice breeze and near full sunshine. I could take this all year round!

3. The 18Z GEFS 114 is a tick further SE than the 12 GEFS 120 though it is a whole lot NW of the 12Z EPS 120.

4. Who's staying up for the 0Z Euro? This is the last week before DST starts and we have to stay up an hour later to see it. :(
 
It's fairly apparent atm that the models have no idea what to do w/ the MJO, lol. This may be one of the reasons for the insane short-medium range changes in the guidance of late. The MJO was expected to die over the Indian Ocean but it looks like it may continue right into the Maritime Continent.
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Webberweather53 said:
It's fairly apparent atm that the models have no idea what to do w/ the MJO, lol. This may be one of the reasons for the insane short-medium range changes in the guidance of late. The MJO was expected to die over the Indian Ocean but it looks like it may continue right into the Maritime Continent.
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Lol the UKMET. Let's see where it goes, and if it causes a large shift in the forecast.
 
The GEFS is slowly but surely beginning to back down on the warmth ~ day 5-6, the ridge over the central-eastern US has been flatting and progressing westward w/ successive runs in the past few days
 
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let's keep the hope dance alive, because we all starving for snow
 
MJO is trash to me at this point. I'd have a better chance of winning the lottery then MJO verifying...But then again I don't play the lottery


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Webberweather53 said:
I honestly still can't get over how bad the modeled MJO forecasts have been in the past few days. Even the EPS busted after day 2.
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I've found the GEFS to be pretty bad the last few years (amount of time I've been following). But the EPS busting is not typical for it.
 
Storm5 said:
I've never wanted a Nc storm more in my life. The mid Atlantic crowd is going nuts .

#wehatethem
#tohellwiththemidatlantic


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Yeah, what I would do to for us to pull out a February 1937, February 2004, March 1940, &/or March 1983 repeat right now & completely screw the mid-Atlantic.
 

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  • February 27-28 1937 NC Snowmap.png
    February 27-28 1937 NC Snowmap.png
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Storm5 said:
It's sure hard to have any faith in the MJO forecast moving forward into spring and summer


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If there's one area on the globe where models will preferentially struggle w/ the MJO, it's would be the entrance into the Maritime Continent (transition between phases 3-4). Traditionally, models have a dry bias over the Maritime Continent that's due in part to the disruption of the wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), (one of the primary processes that drives the MJO over the Pacific/W Hem & Indian Ocean)), and the model's misrepresentation of the regional-scale, diurnally excited circulation, and quasi-stationary potential vorticity generation downstream of the topography in Sumatra, Borneo, and Papua/New Guinea that feedbacks onto the eastward propagating MJO wave. I also suspect lower frequency interference from ENSO is also contributing to these massive errors in the models' MJO forecast in the past several days.
 
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