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Pattern Mega March 2023

Latest Canadian run quickly kicks out the western trough as the Pac Jet extends and the trough strengthens north of Hawaii (with ridge to its east). This is the move we need to see to get a good cold punch into the SE. The quicker this move occurs the better so that it can better take advantage of the later stages of the retrograding Greenland block, and have the flow back up for potential mayhem behind it.

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NoSnowATL said:
Week 1-2.5 of March will be warm. That last 7-10 day or so will be cool to cold depending on your location. Overall March will be above avg and April will come and tell the cold to get lost for good.
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Not really. Most of March will likely be very below average outside of the first maybe 7-10 days at most. I just don't know if we get frozen, but it's definitely going to be cold and not cool and feel like winter for most of the east.
 
We’re going so high amp in phase 8 we’re going to end up in phase 1-2 as well down the road.. there’s high significance that temps remain below average in those phases in March especially 2 .. this phase 8 amplitude is impressive though 8ED8660B-919B-4B1B-A271-C596CE29B764.jpegE447E8E9-86CE-4E23-AAB5-479CA4B7DBDB.png
 
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If you want to try and get snow in Mid March, holding 850's below zero for a week straight and getting 2m temps averaging a good 10-15 below average over a 5 day period is your best shot to do it. One thing I am really not happy about is everyone was so happy for warmth and 70's these last 2 weeks, that we budded everything (especially the peach crop back my way) and there's no doubt that it's going to get killed behind cold like this and even our usual April cold snap that we get every year, but hey YAY for mid 70's in February right?
 
iGRXY said:
If you want to try and get snow in Mid March, holding 850's below zero for a week straight and getting 2m temps averaging a good 10-15 below average over a 5 day period is your best shot to do it. One thing I am really not happy about is everyone was so happy for warmth and 70's these last 2 weeks, that we budded everything (especially the peach crop back my way) and there's no doubt that it's going to get killed behind cold like this and even our usual April cold snap that we get every year, but hey YAY for mid 70's in February right?
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Yeah, one day of warm weather is nice but the weather we've had is going to cost people a ton of dollars when we kill everything off.
 
SD said:
But warm in jan and Feb is awesome!
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But the growing season starts early! If you get a big zap of cols in March or April because the pattern got chilly too late it makes the growing season later not earlier. We most likely will see numerous freezes if the eps from what I can tell verifies.
 
iGRXY said:
1678924800-ORBMCrTZLB8.png

If you want to try and get snow in Mid March, holding 850's below zero for a week straight and getting 2m temps averaging a good 10-15 below average over a 5 day period is your best shot to do it. One thing I am really not happy about is everyone was so happy for warmth and 70's these last 2 weeks, that we budded everything (especially the peach crop back my way) and there's no doubt that it's going to get killed behind cold like this and even our usual April cold snap that we get every year, but hey YAY for mid 70's in February right?
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Nasty, that looks like low 60s here. That's cold.
 
iGRXY said:
I got peach farms on about every corner near my home and can walk 30 seconds to pick them and every single tree has buds on it right now. The crop is going to get hammered this year no doubt.
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Can they withstand a light frost/short duration freeze? I mean we surely get one or two every spring.


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ATLwxfan said:
Can they withstand a light frost/short duration freeze? I mean we surely get one or two every spring.


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Yes they can. The damage comes from either a hard freeze or and extended period of with multiple freezes and frost like we appear to be heading towards. The good thing is that it should still be early enough to see some reblooming once things warm back up, which won’t help for the early season crop but will for later in the season. The biggest issue is going to be strawberries… there’s only really about a 2 month window for areas outside of Florida and the southern parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi to get a good crop and have the right soil temperatures for them to ripen on the vine correctly, so if you lose your crop after they’ve bloomed too early, you don’t get it back.
 
Chazwin said:
The biggest issue is going to be strawberries… there’s only really about a 2 month window for areas outside of Florida and the southern parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi to get a good crop and have the right soil temperatures for them to ripen on the vine correctly, so if you lose your crop after they’ve bloomed too early, you don’t get it back.
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rburrel2 said:
There's something happening here...
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iGRXY said:
Depending on how long we can keep the trough positively tilted, this could be something here shortly. Atlantic looks great, and quickly raising heights out west.
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Ends up too amped up for my liking, but the features are there. Retrograding Greenland block running west into a building west coast ridge, with 50/50 low that is actually drifting west a bit
 
Would have loved to seen a few more panels past 240hrs... someone in the mid-south was about to get biblical stuff. Cutting off a tad too far west for NC/SC at least for the first half of the storm.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes they can. The damage comes from either a hard freeze or and extended period of with multiple freezes and frost like we appear to be heading towards. The good thing is that it should still be early enough to see some reblooming once things warm back up, which won’t help for the early season crop but will for later in the season. The biggest issue is going to be strawberries… there’s only really about a 2 month window for areas outside of Florida and the southern parts of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi to get a good crop and have the right soil temperatures for them to ripen on the vine correctly, so if you lose your crop after they’ve bloomed too early, you don’t get it back.
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The 12z GFS keeps us well above freezing for now at least!


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griteater said:
Ends up too amped up for my liking, but the features are there. Retrograding Greenland block running west into a building west coast ridge, with 50/50 low that is actually drifting west a bit
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Yeah, it quickly closed off in the southwest. Need that to take place way further east, but the players are all on the field right now. Just depends if we truly can get cold enough.
 
I think verbatim it was going to have to Miller-B transfer to the coast at some point... northern NC probably measures in feet on that run with the strengthening wedge.
 
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