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Pattern May Thread

Nice little severe MCS moving northward up the AL/GA border. Hopefully it can hold together longer, but I have my doubts. Later this evening looks a little hopeful for some rain though.003332E4-BFFA-4C41-80D1-596A9A5BB0DB.png
 
I have my doubts as well. The humidity is already down into the 45% range. It’s going to take a parade of moisture to penetrate the dry we have right now.
 
ATL is literally sucked in by a black hole,,,lol

UPDATE...
Just a quick update to tweak POPS across much of the area as
models are starting to show higher confidence in convection
impacting portions of northwest GA and central GA with lower
chances across the Atlanta metro and Athens areas. Also tweaked
cloud cover as I expect mostly clear skies will start to see some
cumulus build through the afternoon given the increased moisture
across the area. Updated forecasts will be issued shortly.
 
bigstick10 said:
ATL is literally sucked in by a black hole,,,lol

UPDATE...
Just a quick update to tweak POPS across much of the area as
models are starting to show higher confidence in convection
impacting portions of northwest GA and central GA with lower
chances across the Atlanta metro and Athens areas. Also tweaked
cloud cover as I expect mostly clear skies will start to see some
cumulus build through the afternoon given the increased moisture
across the area. Updated forecasts will be issued shortly.
Click to expand...

Relative humidity levels are hovering around 40% across the area. Why they keep forecasting rain chances above 50-70% is kind of beyond my comprehension.

1653249800047.png
 
J.C. said:
Relative humidity levels are hovering around 40% across the area. Why they keep forecasting rain chances above 50-70% is kind of beyond my comprehension.

View attachment 118683
Click to expand...
Much better coverage than pop up storms coming up. Looks solidly like 50-70% coverage 66DB0843-F34D-40A7-AE74-AFCC715F8985.jpeg
 
J.C. said:
Relative humidity levels are hovering around 40% across the area. Why they keep forecasting rain chances above 50-70% is kind of beyond my comprehension.

View attachment 118683
Click to expand...
I’ve got legit 1” cracks all over my field now with crunchy grass. I’m at 65% humidity today though and have had some heavy sprinkles a couple times. We need about 3” this week to get back to normal.
 
EmersonGA said:
I’ve got legit 1” cracks all over my field now with crunchy grass. I’m at 65% humidity today though and have had some heavy sprinkles a couple times. We need about 3” this week to get back to normal.
Click to expand...
I just had a brief sprinkle, the humidity has only come up to 58% after 9PM. I wonder how much time we have before the Allatoona and Lanier really start to drop levels. The prior wet periods have the river flow probably fairly close to normal, at least for now. To go 40 to 50+ days without any significant rainfall into June could really start some serious evaporation out of both lakes.
 
Y’all keep your drought down there!?7F3D6E99-3A2A-44FA-A491-89102D3F7B6E.png
 
Me shame and Liz got a bet going for total precip from now until 8pm on Tuesday.
I say over 2.5 inches for RDU and over 1.5 inches for Shane’s house. Shane took the under on both and Liz says over 2.0 for Shane’s place and over 1.0 for RDU … let’s see where things shake out but I believe we’re in for a sizable rain maker in NC
 
J.C. said:
I just had a brief sprinkle, the humidity has only come up to 58% after 9PM. I wonder how much time we have before the Allatoona and Lanier really start to drop levels. The prior wet periods have the river flow probably fairly close to normal, at least for now. To go 40 to 50+ days without any significant rainfall into June could really start some serious evaporation out of both lakes.
Click to expand...
How are things now? Looks like a deluge throughout all of Georgia right now
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
How are things now? Looks like a deluge throughout all of Georgia right now
Click to expand...
It’s great, thankfully! I really thought we might miss the bulk to the west based on some short range guidance during the 00z runs, but the It’s been good. Most stations are reporting over an inch already.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
View attachment 118693
Interesting
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AI driven or not, i almost always take summer nado forecasts with a grain of salt. There's a paper i saw years ago (but still feels very true, it has completely stuck with me) that basically implied once you get into summer regimes you can basically throw STP and all of the model driven supercell/tornado parameters out (or at least respect them way less) as their accuracy of predicting outbreaks goes down a lot.
 
Jimmy gonna still be in a drought! ?47AE9289-C4ED-4623-982F-6A0BDA97E720.png
 
My Tempest is at 1.15", but it is generally 10-20% low, there are two stations on each side of me that I keep tabs on and one has 1.46" and 1.36".
 
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