Well, I said I wanted suppressed.... but this seems like bad news. NW trend may be needed earlier than Sunday
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snowlover91
Member
Looks like wave 2 is done with all models caving towards the Euro. Go figure we get the SE trend when we don’t need it.
i think Euro shows a weak wave for storm number 3? Anyone have maps
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's kind of hard to get a NW trend w/ our coastal when the longwave trough axis keeps speeding up. We really needed to go back to the runs from yesterday and trend the other way to have a shot, the opposite happened on this suite. I liked where we were potentially headed into the 12z models but we have an extremely steep hill to climb to get a glimmer of hope back.
We can't do anything right this winter after the Dec storm.
We can't do anything right this winter after the Dec storm.
Starting to run low on amount of time aswell to trend back to a better trof.... if we miss this coastal I’m gonna go crazy, just what type of luck is it to miss 2 coastals then have every other thing trend NW, like wtf ?
May be time to hang it up and root for warm weather and try again next year. I just doesn't want to snow this year.
Yeah, that is on March 8. Nothing of consequence. Hardly any qpf anywhere in SE and the little there is looks like mainly very light rain.
Always bet the trend that gives us no snow my friends. Even if it isn't the common trend. GA and the Carolinas outside the mountains is the hardest place in the country to get snow outside of Florida.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah we've had several opportunities just barely slip out of our grasp, it wears you out after a while.
At least I have ancient winters & snow maps to look at.
Well.
This might be it for me folks. Lined up and ready to punt this winter. I'm gonna give this coastal a little more time to come back, but I see no way we get any more chances after this
This might be it for me folks. Lined up and ready to punt this winter. I'm gonna give this coastal a little more time to come back, but I see no way we get any more chances after this
This continuing lessening threat is confirmed by the 12Z EPS. Looking at 6 hour map closeups, one can clearly see a progression toward further offshore over the past 4 runs starting with yesterday's 18Z EPS.
snowlover91
Member
With this only 5 days out now and the Euro trending worse, UK shifting SE and GEFS also looking bad it's going to be very tough to get this to come north like we need. The fact that the best EPS members from 00z were nothing more than a dusting should be telling that this one is about finished too. We've had multiple systems this winter but outside of the early December one we've had some awfully bad luck... possibly the worst I can remember since I've been closely tracking winter weather. A fitting end to our winter threats, miss the first one NW and the second shifts SE.
Thor
Member
Don't get excited just rain.
I was hoping for one more good mountain snow so I could go skiing for the weekend but that’s looking very unlikely at this point. Looks like Sugar has 63” on the season. That’s about 14” below climo (according to OnTheSnow). After such a booming start to the season this is pretty disheartening. The good news is they’re projected to stay open a week longer than last year
There are some real bags of ---- in here. I don't feel so bad
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I think we should pump the breaks we know how things can change fast. But obviously trends are bad right now. We have to think though our first system (the big cutter) is still in the Pacific Ocean and hasn’t quite grasped our upper air weather stations to help with guidance .. with a fast flow I think things also can change fast .. but we will see .. that’s as optimistic as you can get at this stage
ForsythSnow
Moderator
A record amount of rain here I come I guess. It seems like it never ends. Probably over 10 inches for Feb in guessing.
snowlover91
Member
We can always hope this trends back favorably but realistically we need to start seeing the Euro showing some positive signs either tonight or tomorrow and right now it's been getting worse each run. Usually inside the 5 day mark the Euro doesn't make significant jumps around and is pretty consistent so odds are really low IMO of anything working out.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist