Overall though the snow totals are not that impressive on any GEFS members and it seems to have taken a small step back from the 6z run.
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If I'm reading this right, this looks like the location it officially takes/form starts to strengthen at: (yes, precip does get through SC & Western NC as this happens, but not sure on temps/type).. does look warm at the SFC.
12Z UKMET is heading towards the Euro and the rest of the suppressed camp. That's what I expected, but I guess there is still time for it to go either way.
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Dang, it just rains all the time now. I like rain, much, much better than drought, but this is getting ridiculous. I'd trade some of my rain for some cold air. It's 60 just past noon, in Feb. If this is the new winter normal, I want my money back....or, I want 40's in July. It's only fair. If we'd even gotten half the winter cold I used to see in my youth, with half this rain, I'd still be sledding from Jan's storms. Can't get anything done outside anymore. It's either raining, or just finished raining, or getting ready to rain, but it never gets cold. 60 in Jan, or Feb, a few times, is normal, but this broken record, year after year, spells a cycle change, and as a cold air lover, I don't like it. I love anomalous weather, but this is getting to be the norm, and it's scary.
I continue to like where we stand as there's more ensembles showing a storm, including one that's rain for everyone, than ones that are whiffs. That shows that the "NW trend" is probably still well in the picture.
From Radiant this morning: both GEFS and EPS have continued to be too cold in the 11-15 by ~7 F/day in the SE during the last 30 days. I can't post the maps themselves. However, I can tell you that whereas the raw 0Z maps have the SE near normal for March 10-14, the bias corrected maps actually have a near torch in the SE then, especially the 6-8 F warmer than normal EPS, with very cold about 1,000 miles to our NW in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Note that Atlanta has had the strongest cold bias of the major cities mentioned:
"The maps at the top of this discussion are the raw and bias corrected data for the Euro EN in the 11-15 Day period. The bias corrected data takes into consideration the average bias of the past 30 Days, which include the model being too cold by 4.3° in Chicago, 2.6° in Dallas, 3.6° in Houston, 6.5° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. The maps below are the same comparison but for the GFS EN. This model in the 11-15 day period has been too cold by 5.7° in Chicago, 3.1° in Dallas, 3.4° in Houston, 6.9° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. If these biases remain, then our forecast may not be warm enough, especially in the South."
"The maps at the top of this discussion are the raw and bias corrected data for the Euro EN in the 11-15 Day period. The bias corrected data takes into consideration the average bias of the past 30 Days, which include the model being too cold by 4.3° in Chicago, 2.6° in Dallas, 3.6° in Houston, 6.5° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. The maps below are the same comparison but for the GFS EN. This model in the 11-15 day period has been too cold by 5.7° in Chicago, 3.1° in Dallas, 3.4° in Houston, 6.9° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. If these biases remain, then our forecast may not be warm enough, especially in the South."
Wouldn't most of that be from the SER which wasn't modeled properly? If that is out of the picture maybe the bias will not be as bad going forward?
The SER has been a thorn in our side for years now it seems! I'm assuming its related to the NAO refusing to be negative in winter. However though, what if the SER is what's been actually forcing the trough near Greenland? Just a theory though. Anybody care to speculate?
Well, look what has happened over just the last few days with the now Appalachian Rider projected for wave #1 along with a much warmer SE vs the weak southern slider and a cold SE that had been modeled just a few days ago. So, there still is no firm evidence that the cold bias has decreased yet at all, especially in the SE.
We desperately need to get out of this endless run of +NAO winters and see where we stand then.
If I remember, I'll bump this to see how warm the SE actually is March 10-14. If warm, then we know the cold bias had not let up. If near normal, then we know it had let up at least temporarily.
Anyone been seeing this... winter may not be giving up just yet ... the MJO seems to be pulling a u-turn and going back over towards the cold phases before it gets to the warm phases around the 15th or march ... would get interesting for sure (I bring this up because a bunch of y’all were freaking out about this the other day so now this should be a good thing to those people)
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By the way, the intense cold bias should still be giving some of you Carolina folks some hope that wave #2 will shift NW a good bit although the obvious question then would be whether or not it would still be cold enough for wintry. It could shift NW and be mainly rain in much of the Carolinas for all I know.
Gefs looks like it’s caving to the eps, ofc lol, starting to speed it up (trough) and less positively tilted which means a slimmer chance at overrunning but it’s better than what was happening yesterday, some of the gefs ensembles were saying MA storm due to it actually lagging behind a bit to much, also that bombing low in the top right/Newfoundland effecting this storm, notice now since it’s stronger, farther south, this thing is more suppressed/offshore
12Z Euro is a no for the 2nd wave for the SE it appears. Even further away from a threat. Actually, hardly anything there hour 126.
Looking off mslp maps this is the best I’ve probably Seen it in terms of less suppression, so I guess precip never made it ?
I've got access to 6 hour maps as well as closeups and I can assure you that that is not the case at all. The western edge of the measurable very light rain is actually slightly further offshore NC (150 miles) vs 100 miles offshore on the 0Z. Also, that nearest rain is very light/lighter than the prior run with only 0.05-0.10" within 150 miles of the NC coast.