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Pattern Marvelous March

For those holding on, while the synoptic setup is not the same, the last time the I-20 corridor here in SC got smacked with a true snow storm was in February of 2010. The modeling was all over the place, but showed a true signal of a big storm being possible.

The modeling had everything from a whiff in Cuba, to a big storm for NC. As we got closer, it became apparent that the storm was going to hit GA/SC in some form or fashion. Those in NC were worried about precipitation staying to their South.

When all was said and done, CAE got a very nice snow out of the event and parts of NC got some too.

I bring this up, because there are a few things about the modeled setup that remind me of that event. The Canadian handled the system the best initially in 2010, and the GFS was sending it to Cuba before everything really started to latch on 2-3 days out.
 
I know I seem to talk about CAE a lot, but I feel like I know the area the best and it seems like we don't have a lot of posters for the area, but this applies to everyone.

The 00z GEFS members were basically nil' after having many members for a couple days showing decent snowfall around here. I think 2 days ago, the GEFS mean was around 2 inches. Anyway, that backed off, but then today's 06z run put this out:

KCAE_2019022806_gefs_snow_384.png

Of course the mean is skewed, but that is a large change in just one model cycle. It goes to show, that even down here a couple members have a bigger deal if things work out correctly for a big storm in the SE. If I were in NC, this would make me more excited, as I'm sure there's quite a few big ones up that way on the ensembles.

What interests me, is it's not the initial 2nd wave here, it's another 3rd (that the Euro is starting to hint at)
 
Edited my post above to note that it's hinting at a 3rd wave behind wave #2.. and the Euro hints at it on the last EPS run.
 
Shawn said:
Edited my post above to note that it's hinting at a 3rd wave behind wave #2.. and the Euro hints at it on the last EPS run.
Click to expand...

Always 7+ days out though, we've had tons of potential and threats in that period which vanish inside 6-7 days as the details become clear.

12z ICON looks promising so far.
1551367467277.png
 
Yeah 12z Icon is gonna make a run at this system, for at least the upper Southeast. (wave #2)

icon_z500_vort_us_37.png
 
Icon has some light snow across the SE. Pops a coastal late. Tad bit warm. Precipitation in GA/Carolinas/MS/AL.
 
Shawn said:
I know I seem to talk about CAE a lot, but I feel like I know the area the best and it seems like we don't have a lot of posters for the area, but this applies to everyone.

The 00z GEFS members were basically nil' after having many members for a couple days showing decent snowfall around here. I think 2 days ago, the GEFS mean was around 2 inches. Anyway, that backed off, but then today's 06z run put this out:

View attachment 16901

Of course the mean is skewed, but that is a large change in just one model cycle. It goes to show, that even down here a couple members have a bigger deal if things work out correctly for a big storm in the SE. If I were in NC, this would make me more excited, as I'm sure there's quite a few big ones up that way on the ensembles.

What interests me, is it's not the initial 2nd wave here, it's another 3rd (that the Euro is starting to hint at)
Click to expand...
think we can muster a flurry shawn?
 
Spurs up said:
think we can muster a flurry shawn?
Click to expand...

Without looking at temperatures, I would not be surprised to see the 12z Icon's snow map have a flurry or two mixed with light rain around the Midlands.

Edit: snow map empty for all of us, basically lol.
 
ICON is improved an looks fairly similar to the UK but with less expansive/lighter precip on the NW side of the storm.
1551368065946.png
 
We’re kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. The boundary moves slow behind the first system which allows precip to pop but cold never really gets established first. Faster boundary with colder temps pushing southeast and precip will never pop. Man
 
Ah, gosh. The ICON maps were slow. There is some snow... not here in Hell of course..

icon_asnow_us_51.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We’re kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. The boundary moves slow behind the first system which allows precip to pop but cold never really gets established first. Faster boundary with colder temps pushing southeast and precip will never pop. Man
Click to expand...
That's been the story of the winter so far. My expectations are very low.
 
12z FV3 & GFS both look to be whiffs for wave #2. FV3 maybe a tad closer vs previous run to coastal NC.
 
There may be a third wave, ensembles on both the GFS and Euro have began to hint at it.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Man the GFS really isn’t even close. We have to get this thing shitfting NW quick
Click to expand...

The GFS is more progressive and I'd expect it this far out to be a whiff more than not. The UKMET/Euro combo should be better at this far of a lead in this kind of setup.
 
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