Maybe so, I would agree if the Euro has trended more NW. it will be in Bermuda if it trends any further SE.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Given how we are. I'd take every bit of NW trend we can when we get there. Needs at least 200 miles of a shift to be good I think. Not sure if that much but it's really far away and I doubt with the setup it'll go way NW.
Does look a lot like the coastal that missed us last month, except as someone else pointed out I believe that was even more suppressed at this range and even as it started trending NW as it neared go time, no model (within the last 48 hours or so) had it as far NW as it came. Some of the northern OBX actually saw snow flurries on the backend of that system. So yeah we have time I think. Only takes a slight adjustment with our trough and it will pull NW quick, so let's not root for it too soon lol
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah remember how that was suppressed to Cuba literally and in the Bahamas? If this is over 150 miles N of that, and if we get the same shift, we can bring it in.
Yes, we 100% have more than enough time. In the end, we may miss again, but we have puhlenty of time.
You can pull a storm NW, you can never pull it SE.....
(don't let the deep physics or science of meteorology in this post confuse you lol)
00Z UKMET looks about the same as it's 12Z run yesterday. UKMET and Euro are usually in lockstep with each other. It will be interesting to see which one caves to the other come game time.
Just goes to show you how close this is and only minor adjustments will have huge implications. One thing I notice is the GFS 18z happy hour run yesterday and the Ukie to some degree seem to have a much more NW expansive precip shield and the slp isn't that close to the coast. Which is great because it would keep waa out of the equation
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd personally like to see the entire longwave trough axis shift about 5 degrees west or so when it becomes neutrally tilted near the east coast, that would allow the surface low on the SE flank of the trough to shift markedly NWward closer to the SE US coast & Carolinas.
We either need the base of the trough to dig further to the SW over the OH valley or midwest &/or shift the entire longwave axis west, the last 3 EPS runs valid for 0z March 6 have done neither of these and we've seen a more neutrally tilted longwave shift east more quickly, which effectively shoves our coastal low further out to sea. I personally think (as usual) that the models may be overzealous on the southeastward extent and intensity of the oncoming arctic airmass which would allow the surface baroclinic zone & associated surface low to come NW. Furthermore, contrary to popular opinion a few days ago, I'm not entirely sure if we can write this off as the last threat for wintry weather in the southern US, there's probably still going to be a lot of cold air left laying around over southern Canada and the CONUS in advance of the next storm that reaches California during the middle-latter portions of next week.
We either need the base of the trough to dig further to the SW over the OH valley or midwest &/or shift the entire longwave axis west, the last 3 EPS runs valid for 0z March 6 have done neither of these and we've seen a more neutrally tilted longwave shift east more quickly, which effectively shoves our coastal low further out to sea. I personally think (as usual) that the models may be overzealous on the southeastward extent and intensity of the oncoming arctic airmass which would allow the surface baroclinic zone & associated surface low to come NW. Furthermore, contrary to popular opinion a few days ago, I'm not entirely sure if we can write this off as the last threat for wintry weather in the southern US, there's probably still going to be a lot of cold air left laying around over southern Canada and the CONUS in advance of the next storm that reaches California during the middle-latter portions of next week.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Essentially what needs to happen at a large-scale to get a bigger surface low further NW is any of the folllowing:
the entire trough axis needs to become neutrally tilted more quickly s.t. it raises the height field off the SE US coast
The shortwave over the Lakes and Upper midwest needs to slow down a smidge &/or dig a little further southwestward towards the central Great Plains again causing height rises off the SE US coast
The entire s/w-vortex complex could end up being slightly weaker, meaning the low-level airmass moving rapidly SEward associated with it is also weaker, forcing the baroclinic zone and surface low northwestward.
Any of the above could make this happen and yeah 5-6 days out is still an eternity w/ a setup like this.
snowlover91
Member
The difference between the UK and Euro is a bit intriguing and goes to show how there is still potential with this 2nd system. I like where we are right now, it wouldn't take much of a change to get a UK look on other models. I would like to see the Euro start adjusting NW some in the next 24-36 hours because right now it's pretty suppressed and we need to start seeing some positive signs in the next day or two. My fear is that we come up short like we did with the last near miss coastal... that's how things have been this winter. I see more ways for this to go wrong for us than to work out. The CMC ensembles show a variety of solutions from complete whiffs (Euro style) to amped up rainers that hug the coast. It doesn't appear any of them give snow to Central/Eastern NC based on these rough maps... members 9 and 10 are close but that's about it.
This in bold is exactly why I'm cautiously optimistic about this system....
With that said when should we start seeing those trends, if they occur? I'm thinking in about 48 hours maybe?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This usually begins in earnest when the models are initializing the upstream airmass over snowcover in Canada and the northern US, due to BL decoupling biases that cause spurious low temps over regions with snowpack (this is especially true on the GFS, FV3, & CMC and the Euro to a lesser extent). Once we get inside about day 4 or so is when these changes (if any) would manifest on the models.
Would be nice if the EPS would show 1 member with a legit event. I quickly looked at the 6z EPS run and I see a couple of members that give a dusting to the SE.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Also lest we forget having a stronger s/w rounding the base of the larger-scale trough would also pay dividends in getting a storm to come NW
snowlover91
Member
Looking at the day 5 height bias charts, it seems every model except the UK and FNO have a negative bias right now. The Fv3 is starting to drop back off again too.
The 5h verification scores indicate the Euro is still doing the best with the UK a close second.
The 5h verification scores indicate the Euro is still doing the best with the UK a close second.
snowlover91
Member
It seems like that usually happens inside 5 days too, our near coastal miss trended stronger with that and wave 1 moving through in a few days also trended a bit stronger as well.
snowlover91
Member
Does the UK have this bias as well or is it more like the Euro with less of an effect?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Remember the Christmas 2010 storm? The models had it going all the way to Cuba, too. It didn't start to come back NW on the models until we were 72 hours out.
The UK looks to be the most consistent with its output the last couple of days. It still has that patch of 2 to 4 inches in central NC.
For those holding on, while the synoptic setup is not the same, the last time the I-20 corridor here in SC got smacked with a true snow storm was in February of 2010. The modeling was all over the place, but showed a true signal of a big storm being possible.
The modeling had everything from a whiff in Cuba, to a big storm for NC. As we got closer, it became apparent that the storm was going to hit GA/SC in some form or fashion. Those in NC were worried about precipitation staying to their South.
When all was said and done, CAE got a very nice snow out of the event and parts of NC got some too.
I bring this up, because there are a few things about the modeled setup that remind me of that event. The Canadian handled the system the best initially in 2010, and the GFS was sending it to Cuba before everything really started to latch on 2-3 days out.
The modeling had everything from a whiff in Cuba, to a big storm for NC. As we got closer, it became apparent that the storm was going to hit GA/SC in some form or fashion. Those in NC were worried about precipitation staying to their South.
When all was said and done, CAE got a very nice snow out of the event and parts of NC got some too.
I bring this up, because there are a few things about the modeled setup that remind me of that event. The Canadian handled the system the best initially in 2010, and the GFS was sending it to Cuba before everything really started to latch on 2-3 days out.
I know I seem to talk about CAE a lot, but I feel like I know the area the best and it seems like we don't have a lot of posters for the area, but this applies to everyone.
The 00z GEFS members were basically nil' after having many members for a couple days showing decent snowfall around here. I think 2 days ago, the GEFS mean was around 2 inches. Anyway, that backed off, but then today's 06z run put this out:
Of course the mean is skewed, but that is a large change in just one model cycle. It goes to show, that even down here a couple members have a bigger deal if things work out correctly for a big storm in the SE. If I were in NC, this would make me more excited, as I'm sure there's quite a few big ones up that way on the ensembles.
What interests me, is it's not the initial 2nd wave here, it's another 3rd (that the Euro is starting to hint at)
The 00z GEFS members were basically nil' after having many members for a couple days showing decent snowfall around here. I think 2 days ago, the GEFS mean was around 2 inches. Anyway, that backed off, but then today's 06z run put this out:
Of course the mean is skewed, but that is a large change in just one model cycle. It goes to show, that even down here a couple members have a bigger deal if things work out correctly for a big storm in the SE. If I were in NC, this would make me more excited, as I'm sure there's quite a few big ones up that way on the ensembles.
What interests me, is it's not the initial 2nd wave here, it's another 3rd (that the Euro is starting to hint at)
snowlover91
Member
Always 7+ days out though, we've had tons of potential and threats in that period which vanish inside 6-7 days as the details become clear.
12z ICON looks promising so far.
think we can muster a flurry shawn?
Without looking at temperatures, I would not be surprised to see the 12z Icon's snow map have a flurry or two mixed with light rain around the Midlands.
Edit: snow map empty for all of us, basically lol.
snowlover91
Member
ICON is improved an looks fairly similar to the UK but with less expansive/lighter precip on the NW side of the storm.
snowlover91
Member
These 3 pieces of energy are pretty close together. It wouldn't take much to amp this up considerably.
We’re kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. The boundary moves slow behind the first system which allows precip to pop but cold never really gets established first. Faster boundary with colder temps pushing southeast and precip will never pop. Man
@Myfrotho704_ I think we need to sharpen that trough a little?
That's been the story of the winter so far. My expectations are very low.
I know following the Wintry weather can take over, but please don't sleep on the severe chances with the cutter/ first system. GFS is looking more ominous as we get closer. Here is the thread for that: https://southernwx.com/community/threads/march-2-4-severe-weather-threat.538/
snowlover91
Member
GFS was dry but did shift the low to the NW a tiny bit. The Fv3 was NW a bit but still not much precip inland.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Man the GFS really isn’t even close. We have to get this thing shitfting NW quick
The GFS is more progressive and I'd expect it this far out to be a whiff more than not. The UKMET/Euro combo should be better at this far of a lead in this kind of setup.