snowlover91
Member
Overall though the snow totals are not that impressive on any GEFS members and it seems to have taken a small step back from the 6z run.
GEFS members still demonstrate a wide range of possible outcomes from complete whiffs to some pretty amped options.
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Wouldn't most of that be from the SER which wasn't modeled properly? If that is out of the picture maybe the bias will not be as bad going forward?From Radiant this morning: both GEFS and EPS have continued to be too cold in the 11-15 by ~7 F/day during the last 30 days. I can't post the maps themselves. However, I can tell you that whereas the raw 0Z maps have the SE near normal for March 10-14, the bias corrected maps actually have a near torch in the SE then, especially the 6-8 F warmer than normal EPS, with very cold about 1,000 miles to our NW in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Note that Atlanta has had the strongest cold bias of the major cities mentioned:
"The maps at the top of this discussion are the raw and bias corrected data for the Euro EN in the 11-15 Day period. The bias corrected data takes into consideration the average bias of the past 30 Days, which include the model being too cold by 4.3° in Chicago, 2.6° in Dallas, 3.6° in Houston, 6.5° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. The maps below are the same comparison but for the GFS EN. This model in the 11-15 day period has been too cold by 5.7° in Chicago, 3.1° in Dallas, 3.4° in Houston, 6.9° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. If these biases remain, then our forecast may not be warm enough, especially in the South."
The SER has been a thorn in our side for years now it seems! I'm assuming its related to the NAO refusing to be negative in winter. However though, what if the SER is what's been actually forcing the trough near Greenland? Just a theory though. Anybody care to speculate?Wouldn't most of that be from the SER which wasn't modeled properly? If that is out of the picture maybe the bias will not be as bad going forward?
Wouldn't most of that be from the SER which wasn't modeled properly? If that is out of the picture maybe the bias will not be as bad going forward?
We desperately need to get out of this endless run of +NAO winters and see where we stand then.Dang, it just rains all the time now. I like rain, much, much better than drought, but this is getting ridiculous. I'd trade some of my rain for some cold air. It's 60 just past noon, in Feb. If this is the new winter normal, I want my money back....or, I want 40's in July. It's only fair. If we'd even gotten half the winter cold I used to see in my youth, with half this rain, I'd still be sledding from Jan's storms. Can't get anything done outside anymore. It's either raining, or just finished raining, or getting ready to rain, but it never gets cold. 60 in Jan, or Feb, a few times, is normal, but this broken record, year after year, spells a cycle change, and as a cold air lover, I don't like it. I love anomalous weather, but this is getting to be the norm, and it's scary.
From Radiant this morning: both GEFS and EPS have continued to be too cold in the 11-15 by ~7 F/day in the SE during the last 30 days. I can't post the maps themselves. However, I can tell you that whereas the raw 0Z maps have the SE near normal for March 10-14, the bias corrected maps actually have a near torch in the SE then, especially the 6-8 F warmer than normal EPS, with very cold about 1,000 miles to our NW in parts of the Midwest and Plains. Note that Atlanta has had the strongest cold bias of the major cities mentioned:
"The maps at the top of this discussion are the raw and bias corrected data for the Euro EN in the 11-15 Day period. The bias corrected data takes into consideration the average bias of the past 30 Days, which include the model being too cold by 4.3° in Chicago, 2.6° in Dallas, 3.6° in Houston, 6.5° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. The maps below are the same comparison but for the GFS EN. This model in the 11-15 day period has been too cold by 5.7° in Chicago, 3.1° in Dallas, 3.4° in Houston, 6.9° in Atlanta and 5.6° in New York City. If these biases remain, then our forecast may not be warm enough, especially in the South."
Well hopefully that will change in March.Well, look what has happened over just the last few days with the now Appalachian Rider projected for wave #1 along with a much warmer SE vs the weak southern slider and a cold SE that had been modeled just a few days ago. So, there still is no firm evidence that the cold bias has decreased yet at all, especially in the SE.
12Z Euro is a no for the 2nd wave for the SE it appears. Even further away from a threat. Actually, hardly anything there hour 126.
Looking off mslp maps this is the best I’ve probably Seen it in terms of less suppression, so I guess precip never made it ?