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Pattern Marvelous March

Webberweather53 said:
Just wait til you see the 1990s lol.

You've seen more snow in northern Harnett county than about one of out five winters even in the 1895-1945 period so yeah it's kinda sucked but it could be considerably worse than this...
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As for the state as a whole, this year is right in the middle of the pack of those aforementioned years (& ranked even higher when you include the real clunkers of the 1950s & 1990s) thanks mainly to the December storm. I definitely expected at least one more legit storm to show up but it could be worse.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's kind of hard to get a NW trend w/ our coastal when the longwave trough axis keeps speeding up. We really needed to go back to the runs from yesterday and trend the other way to have a shot, the opposite happened on this suite. I liked where we were potentially headed into the 12z models but we have an extremely steep hill to climb to get a glimmer of hope back.

We can't do anything right this winter after the Dec storm.

View attachment 16931
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There’s no chance this trends back due to the trough axis. Just entirely wrong for anything but offshore...really sucks to be snowless since Dec and the only decent chances are two off shore systems that refused to trend NW. I’m ready for spring.


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I might be deranged but didn't Dec 2017 kindof look like this 5-6 days out? I remember it was more of an anafront setup, but I also seem to remember it was suppressed crazy far south for a long time and showed ATL getting like a dusting up to 24 hours before the event. It's been a while so I don't remember what the upper level setup was though.
 
hikingtheappalachians said:
I might be deranged but didn't Dec 2017 kindof look like this 5-6 days out? I remember it was more of an anafront setup, but I also seem to remember it was suppressed crazy far south for a long time and showed ATL getting like a dusting up to 24 hours before the event. It's been a while so I don't remember what the upper level setup was though.
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It was a positively tilted trof, kinda like this one but this one rn is to fast to support overrunning, the with the dec setup the trof digged much more, also western ridge was better with the dec 2017 storm
0596F8D0-64E8-4E34-BEDF-11412B1C9445.gifB576E186-9762-40CC-A2EF-520B6D263835.jpeg
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
It was a positively tilted trof, kinda like this one but this one rn is to fast to support overrunning and the with the dec setup the trof digged much more and also western ridge was better with the dec 2017 storm
View attachment 16942View attachment 16945
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Thanks, I guess the chance is there that the trough would trend better, but the western ridge definitely isn't anywhere close since we don't have a +PNA.
 
I don't know how I have totally forgotten the Euro weeklies! That's not like me.

Weeks 3-4: slightly cooler than prior run; week 5 about the same

Week 3: near normal to slightly warmer than normal
Weeks 4-6: warmer than normal

-AO returns for weeks 3-6, which differs from recent runs.
 
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