I would be fine with this storm being where it is on Sunday at 12z, as the NW trend has shifted storms quickly in the past. We've got plenty of runs left for it to move
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snowlover91
Member
CMC is pretty close, it's been gradually nudging NW over the past few runs.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Early on the CMC but it has light precip breaking out in SMS maybe it’s gonna make a run at it
Yeah I think it’s pretty obvious the direction our cold air is coming..late but never denied smh
snowlover91
Member
Here's a 6 run trend of the Fv3, definitely small steps in the right direction.
snowlover91
Member
It has light precip but nothing much. It did shift the low a little closer to the coast with a little better precip.
The cold dry stable air next week is going to cause any future storm to produce winter esp VA/NC mountains and foothills. May lose out of the first storm in the mountains but the cold air will lock in at the surface and snow cover will be laid down to our north. A recipe for a significant March winter storm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're already closer to getting an actual storm here compared to the mid-late January coastal that barely missed NC to the east. This is a pretty decent spot to be in 5 days out & I like the way we're headed on the past run or two.
ATLwxfan
Member
We need the low to cut a touch more inland but not too far. You really want The I-95 big cities to be just outside of the rain snow line. A narrow miss for them would be like chicken soup for our southern souls.
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snowlover91
Member
Yeah I agree. What the GFS and CMC have is already closer to the coast than any of the models showed for that January coastal miss and we still are 5 days out which is plenty of time to see positive improvements. Hopefully the UK can hold serve and the Euro will adjust NW some, I'd like to see it start ticking north now.
The NW trend has been about the only reliable thing to count on all winter. No way I would bet against it now.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
snowlover91
Member
Really hard to tell what the UK shows with the 24 hour panels.
snowlover91
Member
The critical 120 hour panel on the Meteocentre website is stuck on 12z Wednesday initialization instead of today. Looks like it might have something good though based off what 144 shows, anyone got those sideways maps of it?
snowlover91
Member
Here we go, hour 120.
Woah. Is that the low in question on that UKMET run down in the gulf (getting picked up)? If so, that may be a glorious track. Can't tell if it's just placing lower pressure there and it's not the main bundle that pops off the SE coast or not. I'd assume we wouldn't be that lucky down here and it's going to "jump" off the SC/NC coast and no surface low will take a track across FL.
snowlover91
Member
It's hard to tell with 24 hour panels but the next one shows a pretty strong low up in the northern Atlantic so I'm guessing it redevelops off the SC coast and then bombs out.
Yeah looking like it may just be placing 1014 in the Gulf, that's not quite true to form before holding it around 1012-1013 off SC/NC ..and strengthening it as it climbs northward. Hopefully we will have better maps soon. This may be a slightly colder run IRT 850s.
snowlover91
Member
GEFS members still demonstrate a wide range of possible outcomes from complete whiffs to some pretty amped options.
